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A comparative study of models for predation and parasitism

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28<br />

since<br />

z =Xo (1 - e-ay~<br />

lira (1 - e-,'t)/r': t.<br />

r~-~O<br />

Clearly, y0 corresponds to my previous notation Y, <strong>and</strong> so we obtain the NICHOLSON-<br />

BAILEY eq. (3. 8).<br />

Now it is very clear that the NICHOLSON-BAILEY model is only a special case <strong>of</strong><br />

the new solution <strong>of</strong> the LOTKA-VOLTERRA model, i.e. eq. (4b. 6), in which r, r', <strong>and</strong><br />

a' are all zero. The above conclusion is contradictory to a statement by NICHOLSON<br />

<strong>and</strong> BAILEY (1935, second paragraph, p. 551) :<br />

"... , we have not been able to derive our theory from LOTKA'S fundamental<br />

equations. Competition does not appear explicitly in any <strong>of</strong> his equations, <strong>and</strong> few,<br />

if any, indicate the existence <strong>of</strong> this factor."<br />

It should be mentoned that NICHOLSON <strong>and</strong> BAILEY appeared to refer to 'LOTKA'S<br />

fundamental equations' as those in chapter VI <strong>of</strong> LOTKA'S book, but that those which<br />

are relevant to the NICHOLSON-BAILEY treatise, i.e. eqs.<br />

(4a. la) <strong>and</strong> (4a. lb) in the<br />

present paper, appear in chapter VIII. However, LOTKA called the equations in chapter<br />

VIII a 'special case' <strong>and</strong> those in chapter VI, a 'general case'. Since a general case<br />

involves a special case, the NICHOLSON-BAILEY criticism quoted above must be meant<br />

to apply also to eqs. (4a. la) <strong>and</strong> (4a. lb), <strong>and</strong> such a criticism cannot be taken seriously.<br />

Contrary to the NICHOLSON-BAILEY view, the LOTKA-VOLTERRA equations are<br />

<strong>comparative</strong>ly more general <strong>and</strong> detailed than the NICHOLSON-BAILEY one. Obviously,<br />

the only necessary condition which makes the LOTKA-VOLTERRA equations match the<br />

condition <strong>of</strong> discrete generations is that a'-0.<br />

And r <strong>and</strong> r' are, unlike the simpler<br />

assumption by NICHOLSON-BAILEY, not generally zero. That is to say, the whole <strong>of</strong><br />

the NICHOLSON-BAILEY model is covered by the LOTKA-VOLTERRA one, <strong>and</strong> so we<br />

do not need the <strong>for</strong>mer. However, some specific assumptions tentatively adopted by<br />

LOTKA are not satisfactory from an ecologist's point <strong>of</strong> view. What is needed is the<br />

generalized LOTKA-VOLTERRA eqs. (4a. 2a) <strong>and</strong> (4a. 2b), which have both necessary <strong>and</strong><br />

sufficient conditions <strong>for</strong> computation <strong>of</strong> the final densities <strong>of</strong> both populations, if<br />

appropriate functions <strong>for</strong> f, gl, <strong>and</strong> gz are found. As animals with discrete generations<br />

are assumed here, we need separate equations to evaluate the initial densities in the<br />

following generation. If, however, generations are not discrete, eqs. (4a. 2a) <strong>and</strong> (4a. 2b)<br />

are sufficiently comprehensive.<br />

Although TINBERGEN <strong>and</strong> KLOMP (1960) introduced into the NICHOLSON-BAILEY<br />

model the effect <strong>of</strong> mortality in both populations (the authors considered <strong>parasitism</strong><br />

rather than <strong>predation</strong> as they did not think that a distinction was needed), it was<br />

assumed that their mortality factors acted only after the period <strong>of</strong> attack had ended,<br />

but not during the attack. This was perhaps because the arithmetic method used by<br />

TINBERGEN <strong>and</strong> KLOMP was not quite capable <strong>of</strong> incorporating the effect <strong>of</strong> mortality<br />

during the attack period. An analysis <strong>of</strong> the process in which death takes place during

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