Melbourne–Brisbane Inland Rail Alignment Study - Australian Rail ...

3.3 Capacity constraints in the base case
ARTC has indicated that there are likely to be capacity
constraints on the railway north from Sydney on the
coastal route unless significant capital works are
undertaken (beyond the works projected by ARTC
on the coast or committed as part of Stage 1 of the
Northern Sydney Freight Corridor Program). In terms
of capacity expected following Stage 1 (assumed
in the base case of this study of the Inland Rail), the
Northern Sydney Freight Corridor Program team 12
has advised that Stage 1 is expected to provide
‘practical’ freight capacity until around 2025, and that
this capacity will be reached at around 15 intermodal
freight paths per direction per weekday. 13 Including
weekend paths, the 15 weekday paths equates to
approximately 18 intermodal paths per direction per
day (or 123 paths per week). These path estimates
do not include coal paths, estimated to comprise an
additional 28 paths per direction per week. 14
This practical capacity (excluding power station coal)
was determined by the Northern Sydney Freight Corridor
Program team, which indicated that current ‘theoretical’
rail freight capacity in the corridor is approximately
30 intermodal freight train paths per weekday in each
direction. However the Northern Sydney Freight Corridor
Program team estimate it is not possible to utilise 100%
of these paths and maintain on-time freight train reliability,
estimating that on-time running can be maintained only
to the point where 50% of freight train paths are utilised.
Consequently, analysis of the Stage 1 Northern Sydney
Freight Corridor Program was estimated to achieve
‘practical’ intermodal rail freight capacity of 15 paths
per weekday (or 18 paths per day) in each direction. 15
ACIL Tasman has therefore used the following
assumptions in its analysis of the base case:
Service levels are as stated in Section 3.2.1 until a
practical capacity of 18 intermodal freight train paths
per direction per day is reached (based on averaging
15 weekday and 24 weekend paths). After this point,
considering Northern Sydney Freight Corridor Program
Stage 1 analysis, any surplus demand is transferred
to road. The first market to sacrifice tonnages to road
is assumed to be Sydney–Brisbane, with the second
market being Melbourne-Brisbane. This is because
operators would prefer to operate longer haul services
where they are more profitable.
In the core demand forecasts ACIL Tasman estimated
that the ‘practical rail freight capacity’ is reached on
the coastal route in 2052.
3.4 Demand results
Intercapital freight
The present intercapital rail mode share between
Melbourne and Brisbane (averaging the two directions)
varies between approximately 22–27% for non-bulk
freight to 60–90% for the commodities transported
in bulk. Overall, it is estimated at about 27% by
tonnes. However this is not a precise figure because
of inadequacies in road freight data. The forecast for
mode share in the base case scenario (that is, without
Inland Rail) predicted steady gains to the coastal
railway. This stems mostly from movements in the
real cost of fuel and labour which, in a competitive
market, would increase the price difference between
road and rail. Track improvements currently under way
along the coastal route will also result in benefits in the
future as timetables and behaviour adjust to service
improvements on this route.
By 2050 the coastal railway is expected to have 67%
of the intermodal market if there is no inland railway.
These forecasts are shown in Figure 7.
Even without an inland railway, there is a gradual
increase in rail market share until capacity is reached.
This comes about because fuel and labour costs are
forecast to increase in over time. As road is more fuel
and labour intensive relative to rail, and is competitively
priced, this is expected to have a greater impact on
the cost of road freight, thereby affecting road/rail
competitiveness. Track improvements currently under
way along the coastal route will also have an impact
over the next few years as timetables and behaviour
adjust to reflect the better service which will soon be
offered on this route.
After 2052 the coastal railway is estimated to have
reached capacity between Sydney and Brisbane
and any additional freight is served by road. This is
based on two assumptions that could be challenged.
First, that capacity reaches a limit at a particular time,
rather than gradually tightening and showing up in
decreased reliability. Secondly, that no there is no
investment in further capacity enhancements. The first
market to be abandoned once capacity is constrained
is the Sydney–Brisbane route, which would be
completely served by road in 2055 without coastal
capacity enhancements. After 2055 more and more
Melbourne–Brisbane freight is carried on road in order
to free up coastal capacity for Brisbane–Perth and
Brisbane–Adelaide freight and this causes a decline
in the Melbourne–Brisbane market share because rail
tonnages are held constant while road freight carries
12
The Northern Sydney Freight Corridor Program team comprises SAHA, NSW Ministry of Transport
(now NSW Transport and Infrastructure), ARTC, RailCorp and TIDC.
13
Meeting between the Northern Sydney Freight Corridor Program and Inland Rail Alignment Study teams, 3 September 2009
14
Northern Sydney Freight Corridor project team
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Meeting between the Northern Sydney Freight Corridor Program Team and Inland Rail Alignment Study teams, 3 September 2009
3. Demand for Inland Rail
ARTC • Melbourne–Brisbane Inland Rail Alignment Study – Final Report
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