MelbourneâBrisbane Inland Rail Alignment Study - Australian Rail ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Table 32 Summary of assumptions for specific scenarios Inland n/a $ Assumption Mode/route Base case Inland Rail (no Inland Rail) Capital costs railway 4,701.3 undiscounted) (1) inc. contingency) (2010 dollars, $ million, (P90, exc. profit margin, Coastal railway $3,011.0 $3,011.0 Road in corridor Assumed as equal under the two scenarios Distance Inland railway n/a 1,731 (M–B terminal-terminal), km Coastal railway 1,904 1,904 Road 1,650 (door-to-door) 1,650 (door-to-door) Transit time Inland railway n/a 20.5 hrs (M–B terminal-terminal), hours Coastal railway 27.5 hrs 37 27.5 hrs Road n/a n/a Transit time Inland railway n/a 25.5 hrs (M–B door-door), hours (2) Coastal railway 32.5 hrs 32.5 hrs Road 23.5 hrs (3) 23.5 hrs Reliability (M–B) Inland railway n/a 87.5% Coastal railway 77% in 2015 77% in 2015 Road 98% 98% Availability (M–B) Inland railway n/a 95% Coastal railway 93% 93% Road 98% (declining to 95%) 98% (declining to 95%) Door to door price (M–B, relative to road) Inland railway n/a 52.2% (declining to 48.8%) Coastal railway 57.6% (declining to 53.6%) Road 100% 100% Source: LTC cost and time estimates, and ARTC estimates for other rail capital costs. 57.6% (declining to 53.6%) Note: (1) capital costs include profit margin, which is excluded from costs in the economic appraisal; (2) the economic appraisal is undertaken on a ‘door-to-door’ basis; (3) 23.5 hours door-to-door transit time for road is based on assumption that 70% of trips have a transit time of 22 hours, and 30% will consolidate freight via an intermodal terminal (i.e. 22 hours plus 5 hour consolidation time). This results in a weighted average road transit time of 23.5 hours door-to-door. This was confirmed by industry estimates provided to ACIL Tasman. Slower road services might attract a price discount, which are not incorporated in the demand model. 37 ACIL suggests that the 27.5 hour transit time may be difficult to achieve as this would require three locomotives, which operators may not otherwise choose for haulage of a 1500m train. As such, this may be a conservative estimate for Inland Rail viability. 11. Economic analysis ARTC • Melbourne–Brisbane Inland Rail Alignment Study – Final Report 81
The key characteristics distinguishing road and rail in the Melbourne–Brisbane corridor are presented graphically below in Figure 23. The alternative road and rail options available to freight travelling along the Melbourne–Brisbane corridor are presented in Figure 24. These form the basis of the Base Case and Inland Rail scenario. 11.1.3 Base Case In the Base Case, it is assumed that there is no inland railway and Melbourne–Brisbane freight continues to use existing road and coastal railway infrastructure. It assumes business as usual upgrading of the coastal route, the Newell Highway, port and intermodal terminal infrastructure, as described below: Coastal railway upgrades Under the Base Case, it is assumed that ARTC’s planned upgrades on the coastal railway will take place, including the committed Stage 1 of the proposed Northern Sydney Freight Corridor Program ($840 million). This is presented in Table 33 on page 84 alongside the costs estimated to be delayed as a result of some traffic being diverted from the coastal route to the inland route (assuming Inland Rail commences operating in 2020). ARTC planned upgrades on the coastal railway (excluding the Northern Sydney Freight Corridor Program) – ARTC has planned a range of expenditure on the coastal railway between 2010 and 2070, including: àà Loop extensions and new loops between Brisbane and Sydney àà àà àà Passing lanes between Brisbane and Sydney Southern Sydney Freight Line enhancement Duplication of Albury to Junee (see Table 33 for greater detail). ARTC considers it may be possible to delay some coastal railway expenditure if there is an inland railway, as some passing lanes north of Maitland can be deferred if freight travelling between Melbourne and Brisbane is diverted to Inland Rail. The extent of delayed expenditure on the coastal railway is restricted as Melbourne/Adelaide/Perth–Brisbane freight is estimated to comprise around 28% of current train movements. 38 North-south corridor projects announced for Federal Government investment in the 2010 Budget – in the Federal Government budget announced in May 2010, $1 billion of investment into ARTC was announced to build on existing investment strategies and deliver productivity benefits to the overall economy through investment in transport infrastructure. Of this total investment, approximately $300 million is relevant for the coastal railway so has been incorporated in both the Base Case and Inland Rail economic scenarios: àà àà North Coast Curve Easing: program to ease tight curves at 58 discrete sites on the North Coast. It aims to improve transit time through minor adjustments to the track, largely within the existing land corridor Goulburn, Moss Vale and Glenlee Double Track Passing Loops: provides passing loops on the double-track between Yass and Southern Sydney to facilitate overtaking moves Figure 23 Characteristics of the Melbourne-Brisbane road and rail freight market Route length 1,650km 1,904km 1,731km Availability Reliability Transit time Freight price 95% 93% 95% 98% 77% 87% 23.5 hrs door-to-door 32.5 hrs door-to-door 25.5 hrs door-to-door 100% door-to-door 53.6% door-to-door 48.8% door-to-door Road Coastal railway Inland railway Note: This chart is illustrative only and is not to scale 38 Provided by the Northern Sydney Freight Corridor project team. 82 11. Economic analysis ARTC • Melbourne–Brisbane Inland Rail Alignment Study – Final Report
Page 1 and 2:
Melbourne-Brisbane Inland Rail Alig
Page 3 and 4:
Contents 1. Introduction...........
Page 5 and 6:
10.2 Private and public sector deli
Page 7 and 8:
Table 38 Economic sensitivity analy
Page 9 and 10:
1. Introduction 1. Introduction ART
Page 11 and 12:
Figure 4 Map of the far western sub
Page 13 and 14:
1.2 The three stages of working pap
Page 15 and 16:
2. Approach to the study 6 2. APPRO
Page 17 and 18:
A. Market take up 3. Demand for Inl
Page 19 and 20:
Freight to and from points outside
Page 21 and 22:
Price Price is generally an importa
Page 23 and 24:
BOX 3 Transit time for the inland r
Page 25 and 26:
Figure 7 Aggregate market shares fo
Page 27 and 28:
BOX 4 Diversion of freight from roa
Page 29 and 30:
Passenger demand The Melbourne-Bris
Page 31 and 32:
Table 9 Forecast north and southbou
Page 33 and 34:
BOX 5 Comparison of demand with mor
Page 35 and 36:
B. Route development and costing 4.
Page 37 and 38:
4.4 Design and performance standard
Page 39 and 40: 5. The route 30 5. The route ARTC
Page 41 and 42: Figure 11 The main route options fo
Page 43 and 44: Figure 12 Albury and Shepparton rou
Page 45 and 46: Figure 14 Toowoomba and Warwick rou
Page 47 and 48: Figure 16 Short-listed inland railw
Page 49 and 50: Narrabri bypass (west) - because of
Page 51 and 52: 5.4.4 Summary of proposed alignment
Page 53 and 54: 6. Environment and planning 44 6. E
Page 55 and 56: Protection areas Construction of th
Page 57 and 58: 6.2.3 Key strategies Five high-leve
Page 59 and 60: 7. Delivery program and capital cos
Page 61 and 62: 7.2 Delivery program The proposed I
Page 63 and 64: 7.3.3 Land acquisition A total of a
Page 65 and 66: 8. Operating cost of infrastructure
Page 67 and 68: 8.2.4 Total infrastructure costs A
Page 69 and 70: BOX 8 Alternative access prices (co
Page 71 and 72: 9. Above rail operational benefits
Page 73 and 74: 9.2 Inland Rail train operating cos
Page 75 and 76: Table 24 Inland versus coastal rail
Page 77 and 78: C. Financial and economic appraisal
Page 79 and 80: Table 25 Financial - project NPV (p
Page 81 and 82: The table below presents a range of
Page 83 and 84: 10.2 Private and public sector deli
Page 85 and 86: Optimal approach Because the projec
Page 87 and 88: 11. Economic analysis 78 11. Econom
Page 89: 11.1 Cost benefit analysis methodol
Page 93 and 94: Table 33 ARTC proposed capital spen
Page 95 and 96: Benefits of diverting freight away
Page 97 and 98: In commercial markets, prices charg
Page 99 and 100: Table 35 Economic appraisal paramet
Page 101 and 102: Sensitivity analysis The following
Page 103 and 104: 11.3 Broader economic impacts Direc
Page 105 and 106: Figure 26 Cumulative change in sele
Page 107 and 108: 12. Policy issues and delivery stra
Page 109 and 110: 12.1.2 Treatment of existing infras
Page 111 and 112: Options for corridor reservation As
Page 113 and 114: 13. Conclusions 104 13. Conclusions
Page 115: ARTC PO Box 10343 Gouger Street Ade
show all

MelbourneâBrisbane Inland Rail Alignment Study - Australian Rail ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?

MelbourneâBrisbane Inland Rail Alignment Study - Australian Rail ...