Melbourne–Brisbane Inland Rail Alignment Study - Australian Rail ...

Passenger demand
The Melbourne–Brisbane corridor is the third most
travelled passenger air route in Australia with 3.4 million
journeys in 2009. 16 In order for rail to compete with this
passenger market, the passenger train transit time on
the inland railway would need to be less than double
the air transit time of 2 hours 5 minutes 17 (for a cheaper
average fare) to attract a significant market share.
Even a high speed passenger train service at 300 km/h
would likely result in a transit time in the 6–7 hour range,
suggesting a challenge competing in this market.
Passenger services such as The Ghan between
Adelaide–Alice Springs–Darwin, the Indian Pacific
between Sydney–Adelaide–Perth and the Overland
between Melbourne–Adelaide operate services
2–3 times weekly at an average speed of 85 km/h. 18
These services have traditionally paid access fees
closer to the regulated floor price due to competition
with low cost air carriers, which often offer airfares
$50–150 each way between such destinations. Local
services between towns along the route would also
be a challenge because of low passenger numbers
(such sectors are normally served by bus).
In summary, total revenue generated from passenger
services is likely to be less than a few million dollars
annually, even with a daily service, resulting in a
negligible impact on financial and economic viability.
Conversely, it is likely to require a major increase in
capital investment (e.g. related to tunnels and signals)
and may also create complexities allocating train paths
between freight and passenger services. These factors
detract from the incentives of pursuing this market
segment as a key customer of the railway.
Total inland railway tonnages
Total inland railway tonnages in the route analysis would
be 18.9 mt in 2020 and 28.6 mt in 2040, although
the freight excluding coal and grain is calculated as
being 2.6 mt in 2020 and 11.3 mt in 2040. Coal and
grain would travel on only part of the route, but coal
in particular pays higher access charges than grain or
non-bulk.
Figure 9 gives an indication of the freight that would flow
along the inland railway corridor. Note that Melbourne-
Sydney freight that would travel between Melbourne and
Illabo has been excluded because it is irrelevant to the
business case for Inland Rail.
Summary of tonnage on the inland railway
The model adopted for the Inland Rail scenario
assumes a distance of 1,731 km, a 20.5 hour transit
time terminal-to-terminal, and 87.5% reliability. The
information presented in Tables 9 to 11 are based on
these service characteristics as well as a reduction in
the rail linehaul price by 13.6% on a per tonne basis
relative to the coastal route (due to operating cost
reductions (see Table 24 on page 66).
16
Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics 2010, Domestic Monthly Report Industry Totals, ‘City pair statistics:
traffic on board by stages’, July 1994 – January 2010, available at: http://www.btre.gov.au/info.
aspx?ResourceId=225&NodeId=101
17
Qantas 2010, Route Maps–Australian Domestic, available at: http://www.qantas.com.au/travel/airlines/route-maps-australiadomestic/global/en
18
The Ghan timetable 2009, available at: http://www.ntescapes.com.au/ghan/ghan_timetable07.html; and Automobile Association
of the Northern Territory 2010, About The Ghan, available at: http://www.aant.com.au/Travel/GreatSouthernRail/AboutTheGhan/
tabid/ 240/Default.aspx
20
3. Demand for Inland Rail
ARTC • Melbourne–Brisbane Inland Rail Alignment Study – Final Report