BALTEX Phase II 2003 – 2012. Science Framework and ...

BALTEX Phase II Science Framework and Implementation Strategy 33
2.4.4. Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin
While the above three activity areas deal with the elaboration of new knowledge, provide new data
sets and new applications of dynamical models, this fourth activity area aims at a consolidation and
integration of distributed, already existing knowledge about historical and current (1800–today)
change and expected future changes. It assembles, integrates and assesses available knowledge of the
ongoing climate change and its impacts in the Baltic Sea basin. As such, the activity contributes both
to IPCC and now also to HELCOM (The Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission), see
below. The work will be structured in subsections dealing with (i) historical and current change,
detection and attribution, (ii) expected and possible climate change and (iii) the impact of climate
change on both marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and more generally, (iv) on the regional
environment and society. A concrete initiative for a BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the
Baltic Sea Basin (BACC) has already been initiated in 2004 with the aim to publish a comprehensive
assessment book by the year 2006. BACC/BALTEX has also undertaken to establish a joint venture
with HELCOM in the sense, that the BACC material will be used for a two-volume HELCOM
Thematic Assessment Report, to be published in 2006 and 2007. This potential activity is also seen as
one important example for knowledge integration in BALTEX, see Chapter 7.2.
2.5. Specific Data Needs
Both instrumental and proxy data from the past and recent and ongoing monitoring need to be
extended and continued, respectively. Further work is needed to compile and analyse data on state
variables. Where possible, efforts should be spent to attain more information on budgets and at
process-level, i.e. on fluxes. Use of climate information from remote sensing platforms, such as
operational European environmental satellites should be explored also in climate variability and
change studies.
Increasing availability of new data sets and products from the Satellite Application Facilities (SAF) of
the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) can
become an asset. A wealth of information is available from the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analysis and analysis products, especially for the study of indicators
and detection. The various BALTEX Data Centres (Chapter 8.1) should be further developed to offer
additional resources for climate studies, and storage of even regional re-analysis data, such as
downscaled global re-analysis, as it becomes available, should be pursued.
Other specific data needs are global climate simulations which have to be analysed and to be used to
force regional dynamical and statistical downscaling models. Even the early part of the period in focus
might be probed in such a way, and the access to and availability of data from proxy archives is to be
improved for the same part of the period.