BALTEX Phase II 2003 – 2012. Science Framework and ...

BALTEX Phase II Science Framework and Implementation Strategy 59
BACC will deliver an assessment book and the overall format will be similar
to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) process, with author
groups for the individual chapters, an overall summary for policy makers, and
an external review process. The BACC initiative has started in September 2004
and the assessment book is expected to be published in 2006. BACC
constitutes one major implementation measure for the fourth potential activity
defined in Chapter 2, see section 2.4.4.
The BACC assessment book will entail information for stakeholders in different areas. A particular
application has recently been defined jointly between representatives of the Helsinki Commission
(HELCOM) and BALTEX/BACC. HELCOM, the Baltic Marine Protection Commission, has the role
and status of an intergovernmental international organisation with all countries bordering the Baltic
Sea and the European Union being Contracting Parties. HELCOM undertakes to publish Thematic
Assessment Reports with the general aim
i) to provide information in order to make sound decisions to restore the Baltic Sea ecosystem to
reach good ecological status, and to support the implementation of the HELCOM objectives and
actions;
ii) to provide policy relevant information for targeted users at national and Baltic-wide level,
iii) to provide input to pan-European and global forums such as EU, UNEP and IMO;
iv) to raise general public awareness of the Baltic Sea and HELCOM actions.
A joint BALTEX/HELCOM project was defined with the major objective to establish a two-volume
HELCOM Thematic Assessment Report on Effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea. The material
for this report will largely be based on the findings of the planned BACC book, with additional
reorganisation and editing according to the specific HELCOM requirements. The HELCOM report is
planned to be published in 2007 and the related BACC and HELCOM actions, including workshops, a
review process and an international conference, are jointly coordinated.
7.2.2. Earth System Modelling and Baltic Grid
To understand the Earth system and, more specifically, how weather patterns, climate and the
environment interact is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Population and per capita
consumption of the Earth’s resources have grown steadily during the last century and human impact
on the Earth system has reached a level where we can foresee large future damages if actions are not
taken at national and international levels. To describe and understand the Earth system dynamics and
how physical, chemical and biological processes interact, but also the role of human activity in this
system is therefore crucial knowledge for our society.
Furthermore, for knowledge integration and synthesis within BALTEX Phase II the development of a
regional Earth system model is essential. The aim of Earth system modelling is the understanding of
the complex Earth system, the controlling processes and the impact of man. Such models integrate our
knowledge of the Earth system and account for the coupling between physical and biogeochemical
processes in its components. Earth System Models (ESMs) are needed to understand large climate
variations of the past and to predict future climate changes. Thus, an ESM can integrate the knowledge
gained in the four objectives of BALTEX Phase II, and will use additional data which will be provided
by measurements and new satellite sensors.
The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Germany, jointly with other international
institutes has initiated a new community effort towards the development of an integrated ESM. This
model system, called “COSMOS” (Community Earth System Models), will represent physical,
chemical and biological processes in the atmosphere, ocean and on land. Within the COSMOS
program the development of a global ESM is planned. The aim is to set up a system model based on
tested model components which will be coupled via the Programme for Integrated Earth System
Modelling (PRISM) standards. Regional coupled modelling systems, which have been established
within BALTEX, can be seen as regional pilot systems in COSMOS. This can be the nucleus of the
first regional pilot study area within COSMOS.