BALTEX Phase II 2003 – 2012. Science Framework and ...

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BALTEX Phase II Science Framework and Implementation Strategy
Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) is the core project in WCRP for studies of
climate variability, extending effective predictions of climate variability and refining the estimates of
anthropogenic climate change. CLIVAR is attempting particularly to exploit the "memory" in the
slowly changing oceans and to develop understanding of the coupled behaviour of the rapidly
changing atmosphere and slowly varying land surface, oceans and ice masses as they respond to
natural processes, human influences and changes in the Earth's chemistry and biota. CLIVAR will
advance the findings of two successfully completed predecessor projects: the Tropical Ocean and
Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project, and WCRP's World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE).
BALTEX Phase II will contribute to CLIVAR goals mainly through the exploitation of the forecasting
skill on time scales of weeks to seasons stemming from soil moisture and/or sea ice cover in a
marginal sea. But also the long meteorological and hydrologic time series evaluation over a major
catchment and the regional climate change scenario calculations will allow contributing to reaching
CLIVAR goals.
10.6. IGBP and LOICZ
The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) was established by the International
Council for Science (ICSU) in 1986 to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical and
biological processes that regulate the total Earth system, the unique environment that it provides for
life, the changes that are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are influenced by
human actions. IGBP constitutes another major international global environmental change programme,
together with WCRP (see above), IHDP and DIVERSITAS. All four programmes have recently
established the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), which constitutes a joint science strategy
and frame for closer cooperation (see next section). IGBP provides for integration of several major
global and regional research projects and has defined several core projects.
One IGBP core project is LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone), which was
founded in 1993 with the aim to initiate, coordinate and summarize coastal research in connection with
global environmental change worldwide. Four research foci were identified:
1) Effects of Changes in External Forcing or Boundary Conditions on Coastal Fluxes,
2) Coastal Biogeomorphology and Global Change;
3) Carbon Fluxes and Trace Gas Emissions;
4) Economic and Social Impacts of Global Change in Coastal Systems.
A major achievement of LOICZ research was the establishment of a coastal typology that
characterizes the global coast on a grid with ½° horizontal resolution, with respect to population, water
quality, soil type as well as other parameters. Another large ongoing project is the worldwide survey
of more than 200 river catchments (focussing on eutrophication, erosion/sedimentation problems, loss
of biodiversity and pollution) that includes parts of the Baltic Sea.
In the second phase of LOICZ (“LOICZ II”, defined for 2003-2012), research will be extended to the
human dimension, i.e. the interaction of human population with the coastal areas. As a consequence,
LOICZ is not only a core project of IGBP, but also a core project of the International Human
Dimensions Programme (IHDP). The Scientific Steering Committee of LOICZ defined the following
major research areas for LOICZ II:
• Vulnerability of coastal systems and hazards to human society,
• implications of global change for coastal ecosystems and sustainable development,
• anthropogenic influences on river basin and coastal zone interactions,
• biogeochemical cycles in coastal and shelf waters, and
• towards coastal system sustainability by managing land-ocean interactions.
The Baltic Sea coast line extends over several thousand kilometres, and the “coastal area” covers a
significant fraction of the Baltic Sea basin, both on the marine and terrestrial side. BALTEX research