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Ground Truth Studies Teacher Handbook - Aspen Global Change ...

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A <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Primer (continued)<br />

ground level also has adverse affects on trees, and is thus implicated in the degradation and decline of forests. Tropospheric<br />

ozone is thus the “bad ozone,” not to be confused with the “good ozone” in the stratosphere, which protects life<br />

from excess ultraviolet radiation.<br />

GWPs<br />

In attempting to compare the effect of different greenhouse gases (there are dozens), the Intergovernmental Panel on<br />

Climate <strong>Change</strong> developed the <strong>Global</strong> Warming Potential (GWP) for different gases. The GWP assigned to a gas is<br />

basically a tool for policy discussions on the relative importance of different gases to the greenhouse effect.<br />

By setting the greenhouse warming potential of CO 2<br />

equal to 1, the effect of all other greenhouse gases can be calculated.<br />

Gas<br />

GWP†<br />

CO 2<br />

1<br />

CH 4<br />

11<br />

N 2<br />

O 270<br />

CFC-11 3,400<br />

CFC-12 7,100<br />

HCFC-22 1,600<br />

† time horizon of 100 years. From IPCC 1992.<br />

Since different gases have different resident times in the<br />

atmosphere, the GWP index is a time-integrated measure<br />

of warming potential.<br />

Modeling climate<br />

It is important to know how the climate will change<br />

globally, such as altered global average temperature and<br />

precipitation, but for most of us we want to also know how<br />

climate will change regionally, and even locally. Modeling<br />

future climate at any scale is one of the challenges of<br />

global change science. Information on radiatively<br />

important gases, the role of clouds in warming or cooling<br />

the Earth, and other variables are used to build<br />

supercomputer models of the atmosphere. These models,<br />

known as General Circulation Models (GCMs), are now<br />

being developed to couple with models of the biosphere<br />

and hydrosphere to gain insight into how Earth systems as<br />

a whole interact.<br />

Local Temperature <strong>Change</strong> (˚C)<br />

2<br />

0<br />

-2<br />

-4<br />

-6<br />

-8<br />

-10<br />

of CO 2<br />

400<br />

1990<br />

level<br />

300<br />

280<br />

260<br />

240<br />

220<br />

200<br />

180<br />

Carbon Dioxide<br />

300<br />

280<br />

260<br />

240<br />

220<br />

200<br />

180<br />

0 40 80 120 160<br />

Age (thousand years before present)<br />

Figure 5<br />

Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv)<br />

Methane<br />

Entrapped methane, carbon dioxide, and<br />

derived temperatures, Antarctic ice cores.<br />

Adapted from IPCC 1990 Scientific Assessment.<br />

700<br />

600<br />

500<br />

Methane Concentration (ppmv)<br />

© ASPEN GLOBAL CHANGE INSTITUTE 1995 GROUND TRUTH STUDIES<br />

21

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