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Draft Final Report, 19 th July, 2012 22. TOURISM GROWTH SCENARIOS 22.1 PIVOTAL ASSUMPTIONS Any consideration of growth scenarios will be predicated by a number of assumptions concerning the fundamental factors determining growth – market demand potential, supportive business environment, favourable climate for investment etc,. Similarly in Montserrat’s case, but unlike most other ‘high-end, low-volume’ Caribbean destinations discussed in Ch 18 earlier, four specific factors will have a determining influence on the nature and pace of tourism development on the island. These assumptions are in relation to the state of activity of the volcano, access transport services, port development at Carr’s Bay and the GoM and UK Government Memorandum of Understanding concerning the town and tourism development at Little Bay. The Volcano Firstly, it has to be recognised that while the volcano has now been quiet for over two years, there is always the possibility of another ‘event’. Nevertheless, although the precise nature of any renewed activity cannot be determined, the direction of any associated pyroclastic flows is now more or less predictable and would not be expected to impact – except (depending on wind directions) for ashfall – on the Old Towne area and north of the Belham Valley. In this respect the pivotal assumption is that the line of exclusion zone B is moved to coincide with what was the Belham Valley River. As a result, existing and potential properties located north of this changed boundary line would now be able to access mortgage financing and insurance. Access Transport Services a) New Ferry Service The building and commissioning of an appropriately designed passenger and cargo ferry with adequate capacity and domiciled in Montserrat to serve the island’s economic security and emergency needs is under active consideration by the GoM. The timelines for its implementation are as follows: (i) Prospectus issued by GoM by 30 Jun 2012 (ii) Call for Expression of Interest by 30 th Oct 2012 (iii) Business Case preparation by 30 th Dec 2012 (iv) DFID funding decision by 31 st Jan, 2013 (v) 18 months construction and commissioning period – ferry in service by mid 2014 b) Twin Otter Service As outlined in Ch. 7, earlier the existing air services using the 6 seater plane is considered inadequate. Arising from this the GoM is actively considering the leasing/part leasing of a Twin Otter aircraft to operate the route under management by an airline operating company. The timelines for its implementation are as follows: (i) Prospectus issued by GoM by 30 Jun 2012 (ii) Call for Expression of Interest by 30 th Oct 2012 (iii) Business Case preparation by 30 th Dec 2012 (iv) DFID funding decision by 31 st Jan, 2013 (v) Leasing agreement and selection of airline operating company by 30 th June, 2013. MONTSERRAT TOURISM DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2012 – 2022 76
Draft Final Report, 19 th July, 2012 c) Carr’s Bay Port Development The planning for Carr’s Bay Port development is now underway, with provision of berthing facilities for the proposed new passenger ferry, cargo ships and the smaller sized cruise ships (up to maximum of 500 passengers). The timelines for implementation are as follows: (i) Design options prepared by mid July, 2012 (ii) Economic assessment of the town and port by September 2012 (iii) Decision on optimum design by October, 2012 (iv) Final design completed by end Jan 2013 (v) Funding decision in Feb 2013 (vi) Contractor in place by end Jun 2013 (vii) Phased construction – port facilities in place by June 2016 d) Town and Little Bay Tourism Development The planning for the town and tourism development (involving an hotel and residences along with a marina and fishermen’s village) is at the conceptual stage. Concept designs have been drawn up by the Montserrat Development Corporation. Based on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the Governments of the UK and Montserrat, the Carr’s Port development is to proceed in parallel with the town and Little Bay tourism development. Although we have not seen the actual wording of the MOU, our understanding is that it states or implies that the construction of Carr’s port will proceed only on the condition of private sector investment being undertaken simultaneously in the development of the town and Little Bay tourism infrastructure. Research by the MDC indicates private sector investor interest, but, understandably as yet, no firm commitments. An important point concerning the interpretation of the MOU is that the nature and extent of any private sector investor commitment has not been specified; ie no threshold or minimum amount of private sector investment either in the town or tourism infrastructure has been specified to be in place as a condition for work to begin on the construction of the Carr’s port development. 22.2 TOURISM GROWTH SCENARIOS, 2012 - 2022 Targeted to maintain and increase living standards for all Montserratians, three national economic growth scenarios were outlined in Ch. 20 earlier. Based on these economic growth scenarios, three corresponding tourism development scenarios have been developed, summarized on Table 22.1. The first scenario - A, is the low growth scenario consistent with maintaining present standards of living (in real terms) for Montserratian citizens. The ‘low growth’ scenario can be interpreted as what would be likely to happen if no initiatives were undertaken and tourism development continued to be constrained by the shortcomings of the existing infrastructure. Scenario C is the high growth scenario which can be interpreted as the rate at which tourism could expand if sufficient public and private sector capital investment was forthcoming to build and commission the proposed new ferry, lease a twin otter aircrarft, construct Carr’s port, and develop the town hotel, residences and marina at Little Bay. Between these lie a number of possibilities, one of the more likely being the commissioning of the ferry service, the leasing of a twin otter aircraft and construction of Carr’s Bay port, but without any major investment in the town or tourism infrastructure at Little Bay, at least until after 2022. This is designated at as the medium growth Scenario B. MONTSERRAT TOURISM DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2012 – 2022 77
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