European small and mid caps-Stock picks Q4 2007-Q1 2008 - Fourlis

Mid cap
European small and mid caps
17 October 2007
abc
Financials & valuation: Ingenico
Financial statements
Year to 12/2006a 12/2007e 12/2008e 12/2009e
Profit & loss summary (EURm)
Revenue 506.2 572.5 641.2 723.6
EBITDA 37.9 61.7 88.1 107.6
Depreciation & amortisation -6.4 -8.1 -8.9 -10.8
Operating profit/EBIT 31.5 53.6 79.2 96.9
Net interest -7.8 -5.7 -6.7 -5.6
PBT 23.6 47.9 72.5 91.3
HSBC PBT 23.6 47.9 72.5 91.3
Taxation -7.4 -14.4 -23.9 -30.1
Net profit 16.2 33.4 48.5 61.0
HSBC net profit 16.2 33.4 48.5 61.0
Cash flow summary (EURm)
Cash flow from operations 36.0 29.6 55.3 68.7
Capex -10.3 -12.7 -13.0 -20.0
Cash flow from investment 2.1 -0.6 -12.3 -19.3
Dividends 0.0 -11.3 -11.4 -15.2
Change in net debt -30.5 -25.6 -31.5 -34.2
FCF equity 22.1 8.6 32.3 38.7
Balance sheet summary (EURm)
Intangible fixed assets 111.4 101.4 91.4 81.4
Tangible fixed assets 16.8 22.1 26.2 35.4
Current assets 309.6 359.1 397.2 452.1
Cash & others 67.6 83.8 96.3 123.6
Total assets 459.6 504.4 536.6 590.7
Operating liabilities 155.3 173.5 187.5 202.7
Gross debt 159.4 150.0 131.0 124.0
Net debt 91.8 66.2 34.7 0.4
Shareholders funds 144.1 180.8 217.8 263.7
Invested capital 214.9 225.4 230.9 242.7
Ratio, growth and per share analysis
Year to 12/2006a 12/2007e 12/2008e 12/2009e
Y-o-y % change
Revenue 15.9 13.1 12.0 12.8
EBITDA 63.0 42.8 22.1
Operating profit 70.4 47.7 22.3
PBT 102.8 51.3 25.9
HSBC EPS 96.9 45.0 25.9
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x) 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.1
ROIC 10.6 17.0 23.3 27.4
ROE 13.6 20.6 24.3 25.4
ROA 4.8 7.8 10.2 11.5
EBITDA margin 7.5 10.8 13.7 14.9
Operating profit margin 6.2 9.4 12.3 13.4
EBITDA/net interest (x) 4.8 10.8 13.2 19.2
Net debt/equity 63.7 36.6 15.9 0.2
Net debt/EBITDA (x) 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.0
CF from operations/net debt 39.2 44.7 159.6 15832.8
Per share data (EUR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted) 0.52 1.02 1.48 1.86
HSBC EPS (fully diluted) 0.52 1.02 1.48 1.86
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
NAV 4.60 5.52 6.65 8.05
Valuation data
Overweight
Year to 12/2006a 12/2007e 12/2008e 12/2009e
EV/sales 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA 20.9 12.4 8.3 6.5
EV/IC 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.9
PE* 41.6 21.1 14.6 11.6
P/NAV 4.7 3.9 3.2 2.7
FCF yield (%) 3.2 1.2 4.6 5.5
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
Issuer information
Share price (EUR) 21.55 Target price (EUR) 26.00 Potent'l tot rtn (%) 20.6
Reuters (Equity) INGC.PA Bloomberg (Equity) ING FP
Market cap (USDm) 1000.5 Market cap (EURm) 706.0
Free float (%) 100 Enterprise value (EURm) 764.9
Country France Sector Electronic Equipment
Analyst Christophe Quarante Contact +33 1 56 52 43 12
Price relative
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Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07
Ingenico Rel to SBF-120
Source: HSBC
Note: price at close of 12 Oct 2007
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