Global Security: in Search of a New Vision - Center for Strategic ...

Proliferation Threats: Thinking in Today's Context 99
Intel li gence—Intel li gence is a con sis tent theme that we have heard from our speak ers. In the con -
text of Intel li gence, we have had some spec tac u lar suc cesses and I would put Libya and the unrav el -
ing of the A. Q. Khan net work in that cat e gory. We have also had some in my view again as a pri vate
cit i zen, some spec tac u lar fail ures and Iraq WMD stands out in that regard. We need to learn from
these experiencesboth the suc cesses and the fail ures. We need to improve our abil ity to col lect and
to ana lyze Intel li gence, and to share Intel li gence in appro pri ate chan nels. We must max i mize the use
of Intel li gence and min i mize the fac tors that would weaken our abil ity to under stand and act on the
threat.
We also need to use our sci en tific and tech ni cal tools: We have talked about that in terms of detec tion
and attri bu tion and some of the new capa bil i ties that we need for this new cen tury.
And we also need to take into account and this has not been raised, the need for a strong, cred i ble,
safe, and reli able nuclear deter rent. Extended deter rence is a major non-pro lif er a tion tool that if
under mined, could very much lead to addi tional pro lif er a tion in a num ber of regions includ ing
North east Asia and in the Gulf, two regions that are vitally impor tant to all of us.
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
International cooperation is key despite the prevailing caricature of the Bush administration. We have
heard time and time again from these pre sent ers about new ini tia tives that have been under taken:
In 2002, the Global Ini tia tive of the G8 to pro vide more fund ing, bil lions of dol lars more, for
non-proliferation assistance programs, the non-Lugar type programs.
In 2003, the Pro lif er a tion Secu rity Ini tia tive (PSI), an impor tant tool men tioned by a num ber of
speakers.
In 2004, U.N. Res o lu tion 1540, which also came from the Bush admin is tra tion and was sup ported by
Rus sia as well and by other states.
In 2006, the U.S. and Rus sia got together on the Global Ini tia tive to Com bat Nuclear Ter ror ism.
There was ref er ence made to last year's state ment of the two pres i dents in July, again shap ing the
future of nuclear energy, try ing to encour age coun tries to forego the option of enrich ment and
reprocessing, forego the sensitive technologies that are associated with proliferation in exchange for
a very attrac tive deal, in exchange for fuel assur ances, in exchange for resolv ing some of the very dif -
fi cult issues asso ci ated with the back end of the fuel cycle. It is a very inno va tive approach that will
rely not just on the U.S. and Rus sia, but on all of the sup pli ers and the ben e fi cia ries as well.
So there are a num ber of very impor tant ini tia tives out there.
THE DEMONSTRATION OF POLITICAL RESOLVE
The last point I would make is that no mat ter how inno va tive we may be, no mat ter how good our
capa bil i ties may be, we will not suc ceed with out resolve, and espe cially the dem on stra tion of polit i cal
resolve over time. And here I would state that we need to dem on strate resolve with coun tries like Iran.
Iran is an incred i bly com plex prob lem, but I think we know what we need to do with regard to Iran. The
prob lem is that we have a series of very dif fi cult choicesthere is no easy choice. Every choice that is out
there for deal ing with Iran in an effec tive way entails costs but we must be will ing to pay those costs.
And finally just a note on Rus sia given that it has come up in dis cus sions both yes ter day and today. In
my view, which I am sure we all share, we need to ensure that there is mutual respect in our rela tion ship