Global Security: in Search of a New Vision - Center for Strategic ...

50 Gen eral Vincenzo Camporini
THE DIS PLACE MENT OF VIOLENCE
Most strik ing has been the inver sion—some might say per ver sion—of the tra di tional def i ni tion of
mod ern war pro vided by Carl von Clausewitz (On War, 1873) as “an act of vio lence intended to com pel
our oppo nent to ful fill our will,” and as “not a mere act of pol icy but a true polit i cal instru ment, a con tin -
u a tion of polit i cal activ ity by other means.” Look ing at what hap pened on 9/11 it was very hard to iden -
tify a dip lo matic coun ter part to dis cuss with!
The shock pro duced by the ini tial attack eroded the foun da tions of a dem o cratic civil soci ety. I do not
have the ambi tion to change what von Clausewitz wrote; how ever, pre vi ous def i ni tions are not in line
with contemporary changes achieved by globalization, terrorism, and advances in communication technol
ogy that lead to a dis place ment of vio lence, and an increased targeting of civilians.
The threat shuf fle reflects shifts in the level of anal y sis as well as the per spec tive of the observer. It
dem on strates implic itly as well as explic itly the increas ing impor tance of chrono and bio over geo-pol i tics
and imme di acy ele vates the poten ti al ity of the threat too.
Many of the threats do not cause global con flicts in and of them selves. Rather, it is the com plex ity and
com bi na tions—the phase shifts—of the threats that often lead to vio lent con flict and global inse cu rity.
THE POLIT I CAL POTEN TIAL OF NET WORKED TECHNOLOGIES
Just as a sys tem is more than the sum of its parts, a net work is more than nodes, hubs, and con nected
agents of power. Defined by Kevin Kelly as “organic behav ior in a tech no log i cal matrix,” a net work pro -
duces effects as well as con veys infor ma tion. A net work can be a force mul ti plier as in net-centric war fare
or net worked terrorism.
Net works are crit i cal to media, cul tural and eco nomic flows. Post Cold War, post 9/11, we have wit -
nessed the emer gence of com pet ing sources of power, heteropolar net works, in which dif fer ent actors
are able to pro duce pro found global effects through interconnectivity.
Vary ing in iden tity, inter ests, and strength, net worked actors gain advan tage through the broad band -
width of infor ma tion tech nol ogy, using net worked IT to tra verse polit i cal, eco nomic, reli gious, and cul -
tural bound aries, chang ing, for instance, not only how war is fought and peace is made, but mak ing it ever
more dif fi cult to main tain the very dis tinc tion of war and peace.
The “West” and I mean NATO and EU might enjoy an advan tage in sur veil lance, media, and mil i tary
networks; but the rest, including fundamentalist terrorist groups, criminal gangs, and anti-globalization
activists, have exploited the political potential of networked technologies of information collection,
transmission, and storage.
Does the poten tial risk posed by neg a tive syn ergy, cas cad ing effects, and unintended con se quences
out weigh the actual ben e fits of networks
FAILED AND FAIL ING STATES AND THE
COMPLEXITY OF GOVERNANCE
Failed and fail ing states pro vide a poten tial ref uge for trans na tional ter ror ists, trans na tional crim i nal
orga ni za tions, pirates as well as drug and human smug glers. They are breed ing grounds for ref u gee cri ses,
political and religious extremism, environmental degradation and organized criminal activity. Thus even
if a failed state has lit tle sig nif i cance in the tra di tional sense of stra te gic resources or geo graph ical posi -
tion, it will take on greater stra te gic impor tance in the future by vir tue of the poten tial base it offers to
powerful non-state actors.
Allow me now a small digres sion. One threat which is not always con sid ered with proper atten tion is
the increas ing com plex ity of gov er nance: we often talk about failed states, enti ties with no defined and