Strategic Housing Market Assessment - North Devon District Council

SHMA: Torridge and North Devon Update
Table 6.6: projected housing requirements by age and bedsize for Torridge, 2011-
2031, without backlog
Age
Bedsize
15-
24
25-
34
35-
44
45-
54
55-
64
65-
74
75-
84 85+ Totals
1 bed -11 167 473 227 1,211 1,731 2,328 1,594 7,720
2 bed -18 -38 239 173 102 -2 2 0 459
3 bed 2 -102 25 -150 -176 -70 63 -2 -410
4 bed + 7 -135 27 -25 8 2 6 -1 -110
Totals -20 -107 765 225 1,145 1,661 2,399 1,591 7,659
(Source: Housing Vision, Torridge Housing Requirements Toolkit)
Key findings:
• Over 80% of the additional housing requirement in North Devon and over 70%
in Torridge will arise from growth in the number of older households over the
next 20 years.
6.29 However, that most of the additional requirement for housing will arise from
older households has major implications for meeting future housing
requirements in North Devon and Torridge. Although some growth in older
households may be attributed to net migration, most is the result of more older
people living longer who are already resident in the area. Most of these
households will already be housed, typically in family-sized accommodation.
More robust data determining the extent to which this is the case will be
available when 2011 Census data is released, but Census data on underoccupation
provides some indication of the extent to which older households
live in family housing. In North Devon, 62.9% of households aged 65+ were
under-occupying in 2001, and 63.9% in Torridge. This implies that in the
region of 63-64% of older people are currently living in family housing, a
proportion which will apply to those for whom additional - and smaller -
housing is projected to be required. If additional older households do not
downsize to smaller homes, replacement family housing will be required to
maintain existing levels of supply.
6.30 The number of older households able and/or willing to downsize is not known,
but, on the basis of studies of under-occupation and housing need, it is
estimated that this does not currently exceed 10%. Applying estimates of
under-occupation, as much as 57% (90% of 63-64%) of the requirement for
housing for older people may need to be provided as family housing to
replace supply ‘blocked’ by older people who do not downsize. Whilst the
proportion willing to downsize may change, the estimate that 90% of
underoccupying older households will not downsize has been applied in
modelling the districts’ future housing requirement with the effect that
replacement 3 bed housing will be required to compensate for the loss of
supply.
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