Strategic Housing Market Assessment - North Devon District Council

SHMA: Torridge and North Devon Update
• Reductions in projected population are largest in the age bands 35-54,
when people are most likely to have a home of their own, and which
implies a lesser requirement for housing from this age group; and
• Reductions are projected to affect young families least.
Comparing the 2008-based and 2010-based population projections
2.29 The question arises of the reasons for the reduction in projected
population growth and ONS breakdowns of the ‘components of
population change’ enable this to be assessed. The following table
compares the components of population change for the 2008-based
and.2010-based projections.
Table 2.15: 2008 and 2010-based components of population change compared
for North Devon and Torridge, cumulative totals, 2011 to 2031, 000s
North Devon
Torridge
2008-
based
2010-
based Change
2008-
based
2010-
based Change
Natural Change -3.1 -2.3 +0.8 -3.9 -3.4 +0.5
Births 18.9 19.8 - 12.6 12.8 -
Deaths 22.2 22.1 - 16.8 16.3 -
All Migration Net 15.7 9.9 -5.8 20.4 14.1 -6.3
Internal Migration In 103.5 95.0 - 87.7 79.0 -
Internal Migration Out 84.7 80.7 - 68.2 63.5 -
International Migration In 6.3 8.3 - 6.3 4.1 -
International Migration Out 10.4 12.2 - 4.2 4.2 -
Cross Border Migration In 4.2 4.2 - 2.1 2.1 -
Cross Border Migration Out 4.2 4.2 - 2.1 2.1 -
Net effect - - -5. - - -5.8
(Source: components of population change, 2008 and 2010-based subnational
population projections, Office for National Statistics website,
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence
v1.0 http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/.)
Key findings:
• The main reductions are in relation to internal migration with a slightly
lower reduction due to natural change. However, 2011 Census
estimates of population imply that the assumptions for North Devon
have underestimated population growth and for Torridge, have
overestimated population growth.
Household projections
2.30 This section uses CLG 2008-based household projections to identify
trends for North Devon and Torridge from 2011-2031. As the projected
50