strategies to counter opiate in Afghanistan - Groupe URD

Figure 4. The value of the opiate sector as a proportion of Afghan GDP, 2009
Source: ONUDC/MCN opium surveys 2009
3.1.3 How sustainable is the reduction which has been observed since
2007
The reduction in the overall area cultivated and the number of provinces involved in opium
production since 2007 seem to indicate that the fight against drugs has achieved some positive
results. The strategies implemented have without doubt contributed to these results. In the
provinces of Balkh and Nangarhar, it is clear that measures taken by the governors have been
crucial. Following the example of the Taliban ban of 2001, local governors adopted a very
proactive political strategy with the goal of reducing production. In Balkh, a successful
awareness-raising campaign led by the governor before the planting season has resulted in
reduced production since 2007. In Nangarhar, the governor used his personal relations with
local tribal chiefs and powerful people, as well as with the US army, to impose the ban in his
province. In Helmand, the eradication campaigns and the distribution of wheat seeds in the
food-zone have reduced the area where poppies are cultivated by 37% (UNODC, 2009).
However, a certain number of other factors tend to put these good results in perspective and
cast doubt over the sustainability of the reduction which has taken place. Firstly, the Afghan
production of opium, which was estimated to be 6900 tonnes in 2009, is higher than global
consumption, which is estimated to be 5000 tonnes (UNODC, 2009). There are therefore large
stocks of opium (two years’ worth at least). The reduction of production might be a strategy by
traffickers to control prices. Secondly, the relative prices of opium and wheat have changed a lot
with the rise in wheat prices since 2007, which has encouraged farmers to favour their food
security and grow wheat. But what will happen if the price of wheat drops significantly in the
future The strategies of provincial governors, who promise the population aid as a means of
encouraging them to respect the ban, may not always guarantee that there has been a
sustainable change in terms of production. For example, in Nangarhar, after two years of low
production in 2005 and 2006 due to a dynamic campaign by the governor, it rose to a very high
level again in 2007 because the population were “tired” of waiting for the aid promised by the
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