strategies to counter opiate in Afghanistan - Groupe URD

3.2.5 Factors which interact differently depending on the province
Afghan provinces have different profiles and have evolved differently in relation to opium poppy
cultivation. Over the last 15 years, each province has experienced rises and falls in production in
varying degrees, as figure 8 shows for 5 Afghan provinces (Badakhshan, Balkh, Ghor, Helmand
and Nangarhar).
Figure 8. Area of opium poppy cultivation in 5 provinces of Afghanistan
(Badakhshan, Balkh, Ghor, Helmand, Nangarhar) (ha), 1994-2009
120 000
100 000
Hectares
80 000
60 000
40 000
Badakhshan
Balkh
Ghor
Helmand
Nangarhar
20 000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sources: UNODC/MCN Opium survey 2004 and 2009
The differences in production between provinces are therefore the result of complex interaction
between the factors presented above and counter-narcotics strategies. Understanding these
factors is essential to understand the success or failure of a strategy because, as pointed out by
Mansfield (2010), “successfully transferring an approach or “model” that has proven effective in
one province or another, or even replicating that same approach over time in the same province,
will typically prove elusive”. 3
Table 1 below presents a summary of the principle factors which affect levels of opium
production in the five Afghan provinces and Annex 3 gives a more detailed account of how
production has evolved in each of these provinces.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
3 Mansfied, D. Where have all the flowers gone Assessing the sustainability of current reductions in opium production in
Afghanistan, 2010.
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