Challenges - Research and Innovative Technology Administration ...

According to the NRC, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are not likely to be cost-competitive until after 2020
when, in a very optimistic scenario, they could comprise about 2 million of the nation’s 280 million lightduty
vehicles. In that scenario, the number of these vehicles could grow rapidly thereafter to about 25
million by 2030, it added, and by 2050 hydrogen vehicles could account for more than 80 percent of new
vehicles entering the fleet. Assuming conventional rates of car buying continue 4 , it could take another decade
or more to complete the transition. The extent of Federal and private contributions needed to bring
the industry to maturity is discussed later in this section.
To help popularize hydrogen vehicles, the NRC recommends consideration of Federal incentives to bridge
the cost gap 5 between HFCV and traditional vehicles. 6 “Sustained, substantial and aggressive energy security
and environmental policy interventions will be needed to ensure marketplace success for oil-saving
and greenhouse-gas-reducing technologies, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.” 7
Just as fuel cell performance needs to evolve to make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles an important tool in
controlling greenhouse gases, the source of that hydrogen also needs to undergo technological innovation.
Today, most hydrogen is produced from natural gas via steam methane reforming. This technology
has limited impact on reducing greenhouse gases and improving the environment. Advocates see it as a
first step in transition to a hydrogen economy. Coal and nuclear are expected to have the largest positive
environmental impact between 2015 and 2030, with newer technologies contributing to a greener environment
after 2030. This evolutionary process is shown in figure 2.5.
To realize the vision of creating hydrogen fuel that produces only heat and water, fuel production methods
need to change substantially. DOE is funding research and technologies to produce hydrogen from electricity,
nuclear energy and clean coal, including building and operating a zero emissions, high-efficiency
co-production power plant that will produce hydrogen from coal along with electricity. Nuclear research
includes high-temperature thermochemical cycles, high-temperature electrolysis, and reactor/process
interface issues.
Figure 2.5: Stationary Power and the Transportation System
Source: National Research Council. 2008. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—A Focus on Hydrogen, p. 65.
The National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
4
Automotive News Data Center reports that there were 7,884,601 cars sold in 2007. There were 8,269,351 trucks
and SUVs sold, making for a total of 16,153,952 new vehicles sold in 2007.
5
HFCVs cost about $7,000 more to produce than their traditionally fueled counterparts.
6
DOE and Original Equipment Manufacturers are testing 140 hydrogen fueled vehicles. Retail production of these
vehicles could begin 2012 -2015.
7
National Academies of Science, National Research Council, Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a
Meeting and Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies – A Focus on Hydrogen
16 Challenges of Building a Hydrogen Infrastructure