Annual Report Year 2009 - Civil and Environmental Engineering

RESEARCH NEWS
project are Nicholas Hinze and Howard
Swingle, Virginia Tech research associates,
as well as three doctoral students
and seven master’s candidates.
To create Virginia Tech’s model of
transportation usage, they used a number
of socio-economic metrics. The U.S. has
some 3000 airports, with approximately
500 of them used for commercial flying
when they started their studies. Today,
that number is down to about 375, mostly
due to changing economic conditions and
airline consolidation in the past decade.
Furthermore, some 80 of these 375 airports
are actually subsidized by Congress
through the Essential Air Service System.
These airports may only have a few flights
a day, and passenger counts can be
minimal. So Trani and his team also take
these numbers into account as they make
their best estimates.
They look at factors such as trips that
are greater than 100 miles and business
versus non-business needs. They
sampled five different household income
groups and looked at three types of metropolitan
statistical areas, as well as other
parameters.
The market share for airline routes are
subject to variables such as travel time
and cost, direct or one-stop flight availability,
and hub types.
They even assembled information as
to how potential improvements at airports
could increase air travel. For example,
“After 9/11 a lot of short-term flights were
eliminated. But if the Transportation Security
Administration (TSA) could screen
more efficiently, allowing travelers to
spend less time at the airport, then this
could change people’s travel planning,”
Trani said.
They also looked at fares. “Airlines by
law must report 10 percent of their fares.
We use this number and determine the
average fares. One year of analysis allowed
us to analyze 12 million tickets,
about 10 percent of all that were sold that
year. We determined that fares had gone
down when adjusted by inflation,” Trani
said.
Lower fares can mean increased travel
in the researcher’s modeling of the system.
A prime advantage to the Virginia Tech
modeling of transportation systems is
Trani’s group looked at competing models.
“We calculate why people travel, and we
look at ground transportation. We can do
comparisons. It is not in the FAA’s radar
scope to predict ground transportation,”
he said. “Even President Obama’s administration
is now taking on the multi-modal
issues, trying to deal with models that allow
for competition.”
With competing models, Trani predicted
that with a 10 percent airfare increase in
2015, the resulting increase in vehicular
traffic will bring the likelihood of an additional
120 intercity automotive fatalities.
“Driving can be as much as 90 times
more dangerous than flying on a per seatmile
basis,” he said.
About NEXTOR:
Environmental concerns are another
factor. With hydrocarbon emissions of
rising international concern, Trani noted,
“Aviation is an easy target even though it
only produces about three to four percent
of the emissions. To offset the carbon
footprint, airlines like Virgin Atlantic already
offer the service to buy offsetting
carbon footprints…. Airlines will eventually
have to re-fleet to use airplanes that are
greener.”
The Cap and Trade legislation is going
“to force fuel efficiency and is giving impetus
to synthetic fuels in aviation,” Trani
added.
In addition to Virginia Tech’s lead on this
research project, NASA Langley, ATK (a
NASA contractor) and the Missouri University
of Science and Technology were
collaborators.
Virginia Tech, in conjunction with the University of California at Berkeley, the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the University of Maryland, comprised
the NEXTOR center when it started in 1996. Five years later, George Mason University
was added to the group. Together, they have worked on safety, business,
and operational issues in the aviation industry.
Since its inception, the center has focused on the development and use of operations
research -- a focused blend of applied mathematics, computer science, and
engineering aimed at finding optimal solutions to complex problems.” Specific work
has addressed such issues as air traffic, management and control, human factors
(the relationship between humans and machinery), system performance and assessment
measures, safety data analysis, scheduling, navigation communications,
and aviation economics.
Benefits to the Aviation Community
• FAA increases its access to forward-looking aviation research from leading universities.
• Universities enlarge their technical capabilities and create greater academic opportunities
for their students, faculty, and partners.
• Industry receives the opportunity to participate in developing or adopting new
technologies.
All gain insights to improve their operational efficiencies and profitability.
All benefit from creating highly skilled aviation professionals and future leaders.
2009 | VIA REPORT | 9