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46 Analysis of the agricultural situation in Azraq Basin German-Jordanian Programme “Management of Water Resources” 5.4. Evolution trends for farms and irrigation in the current context Market factors, climatic factors and water availability have a direct impact on strategic planning for farms (when there is one) and on farming practices, so some evolution trends for farms sustainability and irrigation can be expected in the near future. In Azraq, many farmers are converting to alfalfa at a worrying pace, which could threaten even more the water resource in Azraq if no measure is taken rapidly. We remind here that alfalfa growing using irrigation systems such as sprinklers and central pivot which typically have high water consumption. Most farmers from the small olive tree farms have financial difficulties as there is very low or no profit at all, which is not enough to sustain their families. Some are deeply indebted, they would accept to sell their lands and wells if they get an interesting offer, but have no other alternative than continue farming at the time being. On the long term, these families would not have any regular income if they leave the farm, as it is their only source of income, and might depend in the future only on governmental support, or even migrate to the cities (Amman, Irbid) to find a job. Other farms like the professional olive tree farms are not quite profitable and are even sometimes in deficit, but are still planning to continue farming since they do not want to lose the investment they made on the farm and think that the market could be more attractive a few years later. However, even if they do not mention it clearly, they might be interested in selling their land and well if there is an opportunity, as the income from the farm is not essential for them. In North Badia and Jiza, farmers are more reactive. There is a wide spread trend to switch from vegetables to stone fruits, since the market is risky for vegetables. Some investors who did not come from farming backgrounds tried vegetable farming and abandoned it after just a year because they were not successful. Another trend that could appear next year is the start of greenhouses in North Badia and their expansion in Jiza. As entrepreneurs of stone fruit tree farms are successful, these entrepreneurs tend to increase their orchards, some by adopting more water efficient techniques and more intensive plantations.
Analysis of the agricultural situation in Azraq Basin German-Jordanian Programme “Management of Water Resources” 47 VI – Expected impact of water management changes As noted by Venot in 2007 56 , as a result of little government involvement in the highlands, the lack of enforcement of several limits on abstraction from private wells created a pattern of farmers who ignore the legal boundaries. Even if today most farmers are aware of rules and limits, there are powerful interest groups that are resistant to change. In the highlands where water quality remains high compared to the Jordan Valley, reducing support for irrigation is difficult due to extensive political ties between the farmers and the government. Farming in the highlands has been and still is quite profitable for some investors. These investors want to continue to make profits by irrigating with groundwater. At the same time, the Government is trying through successive laws and bylaws to limit and regulate abstraction of water for agriculture. 6.1. Present cost effectiveness of water use According to this survey, it appears that on average: - Most olive trees are irrigated according to their full agronomic requirements 57 , - Stone fruits are irrigated according to their water needs, and - Vegetables are over-irrigated 58 . Cost effectiveness of water use differs within the Azraq Basin; the general trend being a more costeffective use of water in North Badia and Jiza than in Azraq area. But no clear trend can be identified from the following graph. It means that in the future, if any project should be based on current water effectiveness, each farm should be studied independently. 56 JP Venot and all; Irrigated Agriculture, Water Pricing and Water Savings in the Lower Jordan River Basin (in Jordan (2007) 57 It contradicts JP Venot (2008) and Hanson (2000) who wrote that only 56% of olive orchard water requirements are met, showing that profit maximization is not the strategy on olive orchards for many farmers. 58 Also noted by Fitch (2001), who evaluated the vegetable farmers abstract nearly 160% of the net crop requirements
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