Mileage-Based User Fee Winners and Losers - RAND Corporation

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Lastly, I would especially like to acknowledge the enduring patience and support of my wife, Tina, and our children, Achilles and Vincent. Without their presence in my life, I might have written a dissertation in fewer years, but those years would have been remarkably empty. And, so, this is dedicated to my family: may all our years be full and worthwhile. Page 8 of 131
CONTENTS Glossary ............................................................................................................................................. 11 1. Mileage-Based User Fees .......................................................................................................... 13 Motor Fuel Taxes are Not a Viable Long-Term Source of Transportation Revenue ..... 13 Moving Towards a Tax on Vehicle Miles Traveled ............................................................... 17 The Equity Implications of MBUFs Are Uncertain ............................................................ 19 2. The Equity of Highway User Fees and Taxes ....................................................................... 21 Externalities and Pigouvian Taxes ........................................................................................... 21 Prior findings Regarding the Equity of Fuel taxes and Road Pricing ................................ 22 Geographical and Jurisdictional Equity of Transportation Finance .................................. 23 Contribution of Research to Policy and to Knowledge ....................................................... 23 3. Data and Model ......................................................................................................................... 25 Data .............................................................................................................................................. 25 Model ........................................................................................................................................... 28 4. Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 43 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 43 Distributional Analysis of Alternatives .................................................................................. 43 Projections .................................................................................................................................. 59 5. The Equity Effects of Mileage-Based User Fees ................................................................. 63 Key Findings ............................................................................................................................... 63 Flat-Rate MBUFs Are No More or Less Regressive Than Fuel Taxes .............................. 64 MBUF Winners and Losers ...................................................................................................... 71 Increased Rates and Alternative Rate Structures .................................................................. 73 Jurisdictional or Political Equity .............................................................................................. 80 Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 83 Page 9 of 131
Page 1 and 2: CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND
Page 3 and 4: Mileage-Based User Fee Winners and
Page 5: ABSTRACT The mileage-based user fee
Page 10 and 11: 6. Future Distributional Implicatio
Page 13 and 14: 1. MILEAGE-BASED USER FEES MOTOR FU
Page 15 and 16: Additionally, fully electric vehicl
Page 17 and 18: MOVING TOWARDS A TAX ON VEHICLE MIL
Page 19 and 20: THE EQUITY IMPLICATIONS OF MBUFS AR
Page 21 and 22: 2. THE EQUITY OF HIGHWAY USER FEES
Page 23 and 24: “regressive, progressive, or neut
Page 25 and 26: 3. DATA AND MODEL This chapter desc
Page 27 and 28: Table 3.1 Weighted Sample Means of
Page 29 and 30: values and their robust standard er
Page 31 and 32: Table 3.2 Table of Coefficients Lin
Page 33 and 34: Figure 3.1 Distribution of Price El
Page 35 and 36: This expression illustrates that th
Page 37 and 38: method used by FHWA to calculate th
Page 39 and 40: least fuel efficient vehicle is gre
Page 41: State fixed effects There are diffe
Page 44 and 45: gasoline tax with a flat per-mile t
Page 46 and 47: Alternative 3: Replace both the sta
Page 48 and 49: Alternative 8: Replace state and fe
Page 50 and 51: Disaggregating the change in taxes
Page 52 and 53: “relative share rate of return fr
Page 54 and 55: gasoline in the United States could
Page 56 and 57: The first method divides total fede
Page 58 and 59:
Risk of global warming: The margina
Page 60 and 61:
additional projections based on alt
Page 62 and 63:
industry and public sector energy c
Page 64 and 65:
FLAT-RATE MBUFS ARE NO MORE OR LESS
Page 66 and 67:
Table 5.1 Percent Change in Average
Page 68 and 69:
Table 5.3 Change in the Consumer Su
Page 70 and 71:
weighting of the changes in revenue
Page 72 and 73:
Table 5.6 Average Changes in Federa
Page 74 and 75:
Table 5.7 Components of Welfare Cha
Page 76 and 77:
The finding that increasing the rat
Page 78 and 79:
Table 5.10 Change in Consumer Surpl
Page 80 and 81:
of adopting MBUFs. Specifically, th
Page 82 and 83:
Table 5.14 Percent Change in VMT an
Page 84 and 85:
side by side for each alternative.
Page 86 and 87:
The findings for other groups are m
Page 88 and 89:
Table 5.17 Average Change in Consum
Page 91 and 92:
6. FUTURE DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIO
Page 93 and 94:
e enacted. Figure 6.4 completes the
Page 95 and 96:
Table 6.1 Projections of Suits Indi
Page 97 and 98:
change in consumer surplus for key
Page 99 and 100:
7. CONCLUSION The purpose of this d
Page 101 and 102:
The marginal costs of congestion an
Page 103:
Commercial trucks were explicitly n
Page 106 and 107:
The variable name for Hispanic stat
Page 108 and 109:
price series from the EIA. The “M
Page 110 and 111:
Table A.1 State Gasoline Excise Tax
Page 112 and 113:
Table A.3 Household Type Categories
Page 114 and 115:
CALCULATING THE CHANGE IN CONSUMER
Page 116 and 117:
Revenue Revenue Revenue Method
Page 118 and 119:
PROJECTIONS OF CHANGES IN CONSUMER
Page 120 and 121:
Table B.3 Projections of Changes in
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124 and 125:
Page 127 and 128:
LIST OF REFERENCES AAA. 2011. Your
Page 129 and 130:
Musgrave, Richard A., and Peggy B.
Page 131:
Wachs, Martin. 2003. Improving effi
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