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Risk to herd viability approached the high category and range disturbance exceeded the threshold set forth in the national boreal caribou recovery strategy. The more rapid changes to landscape composition in the southern portion of the study area translated to larger simulated impacts to terrestrial wildlife. Increased prevalence of footprint and young forest caused disturbance within the Pagwachuan caribou range to double from 22 to 44% (Figure 12). As a result, risk to population viability approached the high category and range disturbance exceeded the threshold (35%) set forth in the national boreal caribou recovery strategy (Environment Canada 2012). Elsewhere in the study area, disturbance to caribou habitat (considered here as one population) occurred in proximity to the network of corridors accessing new mines and dams, and in areas that were burned by the simulated fire regime. Risk to caribou viability increased as a result, but did not exceed the 35% disturbance threshold where scientific assessments have indicated an increased risk to caribou populations (Environment Canada 2011). Simulated impacts to wolverine were also greatest to the south, where expansion of the road network caused habitat suitability within many watersheds to decline (Figure 13). Elsewhere in the study area, expanding anthropogenic footprint caused a loss of wolverine habitat suitability in most watersheds, but the decline seldom exceeded 10%. 36 Canadian Boreal Initiative | Wildlife Conservation Society Canada
Figure 12. Simulated response of caribou range disturbance to the simulated land-use scenario. Caribou disturbance is expressed in terms of risk categories defined in the national boreal caribou recovery strategy. 2012 2062 A Fork in the Road: Future Development in Ontario’s Far North 37
Page 1: a fork in the Road Future developme
Page 4 and 5: About the Canadian Boreal Initiativ
Page 6 and 7: developments in the north. The simu
Page 8 and 9: viii Canadian Boreal Initiative | W
Page 10 and 11: These ecosystems also confer erosio
Page 12 and 13: 2. Study Area The pilot study area
Page 14 and 15: 3. Methods The project applied A La
Page 16 and 17: Table 1. Cover types used when para
Page 18 and 19: 3.2 Ecological Processes 3.2.1 Succ
Page 20 and 21: 3.3 Land Use 3.3.1 Hydroelectric Se
Page 22 and 23: ! Figure 3. Current, planned, and p
Page 24 and 25: 2,000 MW of hydropower potential in
Page 26 and 27: Figure 6. Kimberlite deposits used
Page 28 and 29: Figure 7. Chromite deposits used in
Page 30 and 31: Figure 8. Massive sulphide deposits
Page 32 and 33: Table 7. Simulated harvest levels w
Page 34 and 35: 39 http://www.mnr.gov.on.ca/en/ Bus
Page 36 and 37: CD Long / The Wolverine Foundation
Page 38 and 39: 3.4.3 Moose The response of moose h
Page 40 and 41: Table 11. Scoring system when apply
Page 42 and 43: Figure 10. Response of anthropogeni
Page 46 and 47: Figure 13. Simulated response of wo
Page 48 and 49: Figure 14. Response of moose densit
Page 50 and 51: Figure 16. Distribution of watershe
Page 52 and 53: expansion of forestry activity (Vor
Page 54 and 55: North and recommended that “trans
Page 56 and 57: Outcomes of the analysis demonstrat
Page 58 and 59: 6. Conclusion Many of these outcome
Page 60 and 61: References Abraham, K. F., L. M. Mc
Page 62 and 63: Golder Associates Ltd. 2011. Recove
Page 64 and 65: Rempel, R.S., P.C. Elkie, A.R. Rodg
Page 66 and 67: Appendix 1. Overview of ALCES® The
Page 68 and 69: Appendix 2. The Conservation Matrix
Page 70: Appendix 3. OMNR’s Cervid Managem

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