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Outcomes of the analysis
demonstrate the
benefit of exploring the
consequences of potential
land use scenarios
over large spatial and
temporal scales. For
example, the study
area’s overlap with SFLs
south of the allocation
limit and potential
mineral and hydroelectric
developments in
Ontario’s Far North
provides insight into the
relative consequences
of temporary, but
widespread (e.g., forestry)
versus more permanent,
but isolated (e.g.,
mining, hydroelectric
development) land use.
Ontario’s Far North Science Advisory Panel recognized the importance
of addressing cumulative effects on aquatic ecosystems and
made a number of recommendations about land use planning that
are relevant to our results including:
• Maintain the existing moratorium on large-scale (> 25
MW) hydroelectric development, including interbasin divisions
and watersheds.
• Use watersheds or other natural boundaries as the basis
for establishing protected areas that may be affected by
upstream development.
5.2 Priorities for future scenario analyses
Outcomes of the analysis demonstrate the benefit of exploring the
consequences of potential land use scenarios over large spatial and
temporal scales. For example, the study area’s overlap with SFLs
south of the allocation limit and potential mineral and hydroelectric
developments in Ontario’s Far North provides insight into the
relative consequences of temporary, but widespread (e.g., forestry)
versus more permanent, but isolated (e.g., mining, hydroelectric
development) land use. The spatial extent of disturbance was sufficient
to cause substantial risk to caribou and wolverine in the SFL’s,
but not north of the AOU where land use was limited to mines and
hydroelectric development. In contrast, however, the accumulation
of multiple mines and dams in northern watersheds may create risks
to aquatic ecosystems that are disproportionate to their small spatial
extent due to the intensity and permanence of the disturbance.
These differences emphasize that policies for managing land use must
account for differences in the types of developments expected in the
Far North as opposed to the AOU.
The scenario analysis reported here is a step towards a decisionsupport
system to inform land-use planning in Ontario’s Far North.
A diversity of information was integrated during the study, including
land cover and footprint inventories, potential land-use trajectories,
and relationships between landscape composition and ecological
impacts. Further work is required, however, to expand the scope of
the assessment. Some impacts were not addressed, including climate
change and land uses such as gravel pits (which are likely to impact
relatively rare upland habitat) and the expansion of settlements
and work camps associated with exploration and mines. Future
scenario analyses could incorporate these impacts, and also assess
the potential consequences of scenarios that increase the rate and/
48 Canadian Boreal Initiative | Wildlife Conservation Society Canada