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an increase in wolf density, with negative implications for caribou
due to their susceptibility to predation (Bowman et al. 2010). This
should have implications for current cervid management and zoning
in Ontario’s Far North (Appendix 3). While the increased moose
density projected in our study may be moderated by density-dependent
mortality factors, other studies support the finding that moose
populations are likely to expand into the Far North (Varrin et al.
2007, Rempel 2011). Climate change also has important implications
for ungulate health because of the predicted expansion of deer
(Odocoileus spp.) and meningeal worm (Paralaphostrongylus tenius)
into northern ecosystems and changes to moose tick (Dermacentor
albipictus) dynamics. (Varrin et al. 2007). Conserving wide-ranging
species in the face of climate change will be aided by maintenance of
intact landscapes, due to their roles in maintaining resiliency in the
face of climate change and land use as well as facilitating range shifts
(e.g., Hansen et al. 2010). Future scenario analyses could further
explore the consequences of climate change by incorporating dynamics
such as increased natural disturbance rate, altered predator-prey
dynamics caused by shifts in species range (e.g., implications of
moose population expansion to predation of caribou by wolves,
implications of warming summers and disease dynamics on moose),
and reduced habitat suitability for cold water species such as lake
trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)
(Gunn and Snucins 2010).
In contrast to their simulated decline in the southern portion of the
study area, wolverine and caribou appeared relatively resilient under
our conservative scenario of expanding land use north of the allocation
limit. Habitat was adversely affected in proximity to anthropogenic
footprints, but the low density of these prevented widespread
risk. The limited spatial extent of simulated wildlife impacts in the
north suggests that economic growth in the region can be compatible
with persistence of sensitive wildlife populations. However, this
result must be interpreted with caution because our analysis may
underestimate the extent and intensity of land use north of the AOU
for two reasons.
• The prevailing pattern globally is that the creation of infrastructure
such as roads and transmission corridors not only facilitates
planned projects but, more generally, serves to open up previously
inaccessible regions and tends to stimulate further development
and roads (Far North Science Advisory Panel 2010, p. xiii).
Specifically, the Far North Science Advisory Panel reviewed the
implications of roads and transmission corridors in Ontario’s Far
A Fork in the Road: Future Development in Ontario’s Far North
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