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Executive Summary
Ontario's Far North contains some of the world's most intact subarctic
terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. It is a stronghold for a
number of fish and wildlife species such as woodland caribou,
wolverine, and lake sturgeon. The region is also the homeland of
Ojibwe, Oji-Cree and Cree First Nations who have established longstanding
traditional cultural values and a unique relationship with
this land that they have used and occupied for thousands of years.
The environment in the Far North provides important "services" to
people such as climate regulation, food, cultural values, and clean
and abundant water supplies. The Far North also includes a wealth
of natural resources such as minerals, hydropower development
potential, timber resources, and other resource development opportunities.
In 2010, the Government of Ontario committed to working
with First Nation communities to develop land-use plans that support
conservation and development of the Far North. An important
step in the planning process is assessing whether the cumulative
effects of the full suite of potential future developments are compatible
with the aspirations of First Nations and Ontario.
To support decision-making in this unique region, we applied a simulation
model (ALCES®) to explore changes in the composition of
regional landscapes associated with potential future mining, hydroelectric
development, and forestry activity as well as forest fires,
and the implications for woodland caribou, wolverine, moose, and
the intactness of watersheds. Our study focused on the James Bay
Lowlands, which includes the large mineral reserves in the Ring of Fire,
numerous kimberlite deposits, including the Victor Diamond mine,
and major rivers with hydropower potential such as the Attawapiskat,
Moose, and Albany. To encompass the full extent of the Pagwachuan
Caribou Range, the study area extended south of the James Bay
Lowland thereby also incorporating portions of five Sustainable
Forest Licenses that are managed primarily for timber production.
To support decisionmaking
in this unique
region, we applied a
simulation model (ALCES)
to explore changes in the
composition of regional
landscapes associated
with potential future
mining, hydroelectric
development, and
forestry activity as well
as forest fires, and the
implications for woodland
caribou, wolverine,
moose, and the intactness
of watersheds.
The simulated development scenario resulted in a three-fold increase
in anthropogenic footprint over 50 years, primarily due to road
and transmission corridor expansion to support industrial developments.
The spatial pattern of the simulated footprint differentiated
between the dispersed road network associated with forestry in the
south and the more isolated, but intensive, mining and hydroelectric
A Fork in the Road: Future Development in Ontario’s Far North
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