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5. Discussion
The primary purpose of the pilot project was to integrate information
required for assessments of cumulative effects of anticipated
industrial land use on wildlife. Our study demonstrated potential
impacts on wildlife species and aquatic ecosystems from the multiple
types of industrial development anticipated for Ontario’s Far North.
The outcomes of the analysis also suggest priorities for expanding
the scope of scenarios and indicators to achieve more comprehensive
assessments of cumulative effects in the region.
5.1 Impacts of land use to wildlife in Ontario’s Far
North
The level of disturbance created by industrial development simulated
in our study was sufficient to increase risk to caribou and wolverine.
Simulated forestry activity caused substantially greater road density
within the SFLs than elsewhere in the study area, as well as an
increase in recently disturbed forest. Disturbance of the Pagwachuan
range surpassed the threshold identified to guide recovery planning,
suggesting that the long-term viability of the population may require
the expansion of protected areas in forest management planning.
Simulation results also included increased risk to wolverine within
watersheds in the SFLs. As a coarse assessment of risk, risk categories
were applied that were informed by the International Union for
the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classification of species at risk
according to population change 46 . High risk was equated to the
IUCN endangered category (> 50% decline in population), moderate
risk was equated to the IUCN vulnerable category (> 30% decline in
population), and low risk was equated to < 30% decline in population.
According to these criteria, the area of watersheds posing a
moderate or high risk to wolverine viability increased from 1,121
km 2 to 18,698 km 2 during the simulation.
The simulation’s assessment of increased risk to caribou and wolverine
is well supported by studies that have evaluated the historical or
current relationship between land use and these species in northern
Ontario. Woodland caribou range in Ontario has steadily receded
northwards during the last century (Schaefer 2003), tracking the
Our study demonstrated
potential impacts on
wildlife species and
aquatic ecosystems
from the multiple
types of industrial
development anticipated
for Ontario’s Far North.
The outcomes of the
analysis also suggest
priorities for expanding
the scope of scenarios
and indicators to achieve
more comprehensive
assessments of
cumulative effects in
the region.
46
http://www.iucnredlist.org/
static/categories_criteria_3_1
A Fork in the Road: Future Development in Ontario’s Far North
43