Volume 2, ISSUE2/2011 - Review of Applied Socio-Economic ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

CountryPag׀ 58 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 2247-6172Review of Applied Socio- Economic Research(Issue 2/ 2011)URL: http://www.reaser.eue-mail: editors@reaser.euDecomposition of the public pension expenditure to GDP ratio over 2007-2060 (%of GDP)2007 level Dependency Coverage Employment BenefitInteractionratio ratio effect ratioeffectcontribution contribution contribution contributionEU (27 countries) 10.1 8.7 -2.6 -0.7 -2.5 -0.6 12.5Germany 10.4 7.9 -1.9 -0.8 -2.2 -0.8 12.8Spain 8.4 10.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.7 -0.5 15.1France 13.0 8.4 -2.2 -0.5 -4.0 -0.7 14.0Italy 14.0 10.4 -3.2 -1.1 -5.5 -1.0 13.6Sweden 9.5 5.6 -0.4 -0.4 -4.3 -0.6 9.4United Kingdom 6.6 4.2 -1.4 -0.3 0.5 -0.3 9.3Table 2: Decomposition of the public pension expenditure (Source: Commission service, EPC 2009).Old-age dependency ratio. This indicator provides the measure of the demographic burden for workinggenerations. As in previous Table2, it produces the main contribution to the change in levels of the pensionexpenditure. The inverse of this ratio is called support ratio. According to projections in EUROPOP2008, forcountries of EU27 as a whole the old–age-dependency ratio in 2010 starts at 0.2592, which means a support ratioof about four persons of working age for each person aged 65+, to reach in 2060 the value of 0.5255, that is in2060 only two persons will be in working age for each person over 65. Such a situation is lately severe in Italy forwhich the old–age-dependency ratio is projected to reach the value 0.5658 in 2060, see following Figure 1.Coverage ratio. The number of retirees usually exceeds the population over 65 years, as pensions are availableat younger ages of 65, which is generally the standard age for pension eligibility. In general, a higher age atretirement is associated with a lower proportion of pensioners below age 65 and, hence, with a lower coverageratio. In all the considered countries, the coverage ratio is projected decreasing, see following Table 3. This reflectsa general decreasing of the pensioners’ number below age 65 as the consequence of the increasing of the exit agefrom the labour market caused, in some cases like, e.g., Italy, by the recent implemented pension reforms. Theprojected decreasing in the coverage ratio contributes in a relative decreasing in the pension expenditure to GDP;such a reduction is more marked for Italy (-3.2 p.p.), see previous Table 2.Employment rate. The number of workers is smaller than population aged 15-64 years, because there is ashare of population that does not participate to the labour force. Over the period 2007-2060, the employmentrate – defined as the number of working people divided by the population aged 15-64 – is the lowest in Italy withrespect to other considered countries, see following Table 4. The projected increase in the employment ratiocontributes in limiting the increase in the pension expenditure level; we recall that in the pension expendituredecomposition the inverse of this ratio is considered. Therefore, reforms aiming to strengthen the potential ofeconomic growth are particularly relevant, for example stimulating people to stay longer in the labour market.602060level5550Old-age dependency ratio (%)4540353025202010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060Germany EU (27 countries) Spain France Italy Sweden United KingdomFig. 1: Old-age dependency ratio in 2010-2060 (Source of Data: Economic Policy Committee).
Pag׀ 59 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 2247-6172Review of Applied Socio- Economic Research(Issue 2/ 2011)URL: http://www.reaser.eue-mail: editors@reaser.euCoverage ratioCountry 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060EU (27 countries) 1.401 1.374 1.258 1.193 1.147 1.114 1.100Germany 1.216 1.198 1.158 1.078 1.031 1.027 1.021Spain 1.090 1.083 1.052 1.036 1.019 0.995 1.001France 1.389 1.421 1.289 1.229 1.180 1.186 1.180Italy 1.343 1.293 1.207 1.193 1.117 1.066 1.071Sweden 1.370 1.351 1.325 1.348 1.338 1.346 1.316United Kingdom 1.247 1.257 1.130 1.099 1.072 1.009 1.016Table 3: Coverage ratio (Source: Commission service, EPC 2009).Employment ratio (%)Country 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060EU (27 countries) 65.5 66.6 69 69.2 69.5 69.7 69.9Germany 69.6 71.2 74.2 74.4 75.2 74.8 74.9Spain 65.6 66.9 71.0 71.6 72.4 72.8 72.5France 64.7 64.5 66.4 66.5 67.3 67.1 67.2Italy 58.7 60.0 62.6 63.5 63.8 64.0 63.8Sweden 74.3 75.1 77.3 77 77.1 77.5 77.6United Kingdom 71.5 71.6 73 73.2 74.2 74.3 74.4Table 4: Employment ratio (Source: Commission service, EPC 2009).Benefit ratio. The ratio of the average individual pension to the average wage (approximated by the change inthe GDP per hours worked) measures the level of the public pension benefit. According to the AWG projections(2009), the benefit ratio will decline by around 10 p.p. in EU-27. In Italy, this decline is projected to be moreincisive, around 21 p.p., see Table 5. One has to notice that it takes up maximum values in the comparison withthe other countries in 2007-2040 and that it consistently decreases in 2010-2040. Reducing future generosity ofpension benefits has been one of the most important measures adopted to contain pension expenditure. Theeffect of this reduction contributes in a marked decreasing in the level of the pension expenditure (-5.5% in 2007-2060, see Table 2).Benefit ratio (%)Country 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060EU (27 countries) 49.7 50.9 49.7 46.8 43.8 41.4 40.1Germany 51.4 50.4 49.7 45.9 42.9 42.5 42.5Spain 57.8 62.6 65.2 61 57.2 54.5 52.2France 63.3 63.3 57.7 52.9 50.3 48.3 47.5Italy 68.5 71.3 70.5 64.1 57.3 51.7 47.3Sweden 49.3 48.1 41.0 36.6 33.5 31.4 30.1United Kingdom 34.6 34.6 34.9 34.5 34.2 35.8 37.1Table 5: Benefit ratio (Source: Commission service, EPC 2009).
Page 2 and 3:
Pag׀ 2 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 2247
Page 4 and 5:
Pag׀ 4 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 2247
Page 6:
Pag׀ 6 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 2247
Page 9 and 10: Pag׀ 9 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 2247
Page 33 and 34: Creating direct and indirect jobs t
Page 37 and 38: [12] HEDDAR 1988 « Rôle socio-éc
Page 47 and 48: Percent of GDPLoans to corporations
Page 57: Pag׀ 57 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 224
Page 75 and 76: 6. Employment and skillsPag׀ 75 IS
Page 103 and 104: University Press. 2005.Pag׀ 103 IS
Page 109 and 110:
Pag׀ 109 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 111 and 112:
Pag׀ 111 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 113 and 114:
Pag׀ 113 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 115 and 116:
Pag׀ 115 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 117 and 118:
Pag׀ 117 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 119 and 120:
Pag׀ 119 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 121 and 122:
Pag׀ 121 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 123 and 124:
Pag׀ 123 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 125 and 126:
Pag׀ 125 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 127 and 128:
Pag׀ 127 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 129 and 130:
Pag׀ 129 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 131 and 132:
Sub-hypotheses:Pag׀ 131 ISSN: 2247
Page 133 and 134:
Pag׀ 133 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 135 and 136:
Pag׀ 135 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 137 and 138:
Pag׀ 137 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 139 and 140:
Pag׀ 139 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 141 and 142:
Pag׀ 141 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 143 and 144:
Pag׀ 143 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 145 and 146:
Pag׀ 145 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 147 and 148:
Pag׀ 147 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 149 and 150:
Pag׀ 149 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 151 and 152:
Pag׀ 151 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 153 and 154:
Pag׀ 153 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 155 and 156:
Pag׀ 155 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 157 and 158:
3. Socio - economic consequences an
Page 159 and 160:
Pag׀ 159 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 161 and 162:
Pag׀ 161 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 163 and 164:
Pag׀ 163 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 165 and 166:
Pag׀ 165 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 167 and 168:
Pag׀ 167 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 169 and 170:
Pag׀ 169 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 171 and 172:
Pag׀ 171 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 173 and 174:
Pag׀ 173 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 175 and 176:
Pag׀ 175 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 177 and 178:
Pag׀ 177 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 179 and 180:
Pag׀ 179 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 181 and 182:
Pag׀ 181 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 183 and 184:
5. ReferencesPag׀ 183 ISSN: 2247-6
Page 185 and 186:
Pag׀ 185 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 187 and 188:
5. Macroeconomic risks in UkrainePa
Page 189 and 190:
Pag׀ 189 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 191 and 192:
2. The background characteristics o
Page 193 and 194:
population (%)Number of poor 746932
Page 195 and 196:
Pag׀ 195 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
Page 197:
Pag׀ 197 ISSN: 2247-6172ISSN-L: 22
show all

Volume 2, ISSUE2/2011 - Review of Applied Socio-Economic ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?