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section 1 - The American College Online Learning Center

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(3) Is the client following the plan?(4) Is retirement income sustainable?(5) And many other issues!c. A tool called a RisQuotient calculation is one way to monitor sustainability.2. <strong>The</strong> basic idea to determine a RisQuotient calculation is to arrive at a portfolio failurerate that incorporates an uncertain longevity. (Video: How can the planner monitorsustainability of retirement income for her client? Tacchino, Woerheide, Milevsky)a. <strong>The</strong> RisQuotient avoids a Monte Carlo simulation and does the monitoringanalytically.3. <strong>The</strong> four numerical ingredients for determining the portfolio probability of failure are:a. Expected investment return adjusted for inflationb. Volatility risk of the portfolio as measured by its standard deviationc. Median remaining life span. This is the 50% point in the longevity tables.(1) For simplicity, a client can just use the mean life expectancy, as this isquite close to the median.d. Inflation-adjusted spending rate, as a percent of the initial retirement nest egge. In order to monitor susceptibility, the RisQuotient calculation plugs four numbersinto a model.(1) How bullish is the client on the stock market?(2) How volatile is the portfolio?(3) How long will the client live?(4) What is the client’s spending rate?f. Equity risk premium(1) <strong>The</strong> more optimistic the client is about what equities will earn, the more theclient can withdraw, and the more sustainable the spending rate.(2) Market direction is subjective.4. Does risk tolerance play a role in this process?a. With respect to the portfolio asset allocation and the associated standard deviation,use the client’s risk tolerance to determine the numbers in the spreadsheet.b. Once the asset allocation has been set and an assumption made about theexpected return and standard deviation on this portfolio, then use the formula.5. <strong>The</strong> traditional retirement analysis process was to assume a client would live for 30 years,and to assume a constant rate of return on this portfolio.a. William Sharpe refers to this as financial planning in fantasy land.b. <strong>The</strong> next evolution in the process is to introduce uncertainty about life expectancyand about the rate of return on the portfolio.6. Who makes the call on the numbers that go into the spreadsheet?a. It starts with a risk tolerance questionnaire, which allows the planner to select theoptimal portfolio on the efficient frontier which represents the best combinationof risk and expected return the client can live with.b. Note that now we are talking about retirement risk tolerance, not just risk tolerance.Is there a difference?7.29

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