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The Greenland White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons flavirostris

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Geese, it might be expected that inter-specific interactions<br />

in this area would reduce reproductive<br />

output.<br />

It may have been the case in the 1970s (prior to<br />

the period of population expansion by restriction<br />

of winter hunting) the northern breeders had an<br />

advantage over southern breeders. Staging further<br />

south on the summer grounds gave the opportunity<br />

to accumulate nutrient and energy<br />

stores remote from breeding areas, but still time<br />

arrival to nesting areas to optimise food availability<br />

there. This seems to be reflected in greater productivity<br />

amongst Wexford compared to Islay<br />

birds at that time (Figures 6.2 and 6.4). Subsequently,<br />

conditions of greater population size<br />

have increased local feeding densities in spring<br />

and substantially increased moult migrant nonbreeder<br />

numbers using northern areas to regrow<br />

flight feathers. <strong>The</strong>se changes in local density at<br />

key stages of the life cycle could potentially have<br />

turned the strategic advantage into an increasing<br />

disadvantage, especially at a time when a series<br />

of late springs has constrained the overall availability<br />

of early season food.<br />

It seems likely that breeding habitat has not<br />

changed in extent, but that the quantity (and pos-<br />

sibly the quality) of the resources available to females<br />

arriving in west <strong>Greenland</strong> have increased.<br />

Global climate models suggest there will be a<br />

short term and moderate warming of the central<br />

west <strong>Greenland</strong> coastal strip, whilst summer temperatures<br />

further north will be expected to fall.<br />

While increases in total population size may reduce<br />

overall access to finite food resources through<br />

competition, best quality individuals able to defend<br />

rich spring feeding areas could rapidly gain<br />

condition to invest in a clutch to be laid locally.<br />

Birds breeding further north face increased feeding<br />

competition, and poorer summer conditions<br />

later in the season on their own pre-nesting and<br />

breeding areas further north. Consequently, Wexford-wintering<br />

geese may be undergoing the very<br />

declines in fecundity predicted on the basis of climate<br />

change by Zöckler & Lysenko (2000), whilst<br />

Islay-wintering birds enjoy the positive benefits<br />

of this change. It would be interesting to analyse<br />

the historical meteorological archive to determine<br />

whether the difference in fecundity of these two<br />

elements of the population can be related to<br />

weather patterns in the north and south of the<br />

range. If not, there seem grounds for assessing in<br />

more detail the alternative explanations for these<br />

differences in breeding success in different elements<br />

of the population.<br />

57

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