Mortality6-6 Line 25-26. “Statistically independent” is unclear here. Like <strong>for</strong> effects due to infectiousillnesses, respiratory and cardiovascular causes can be difficult to entangle, and can becaused by <strong>the</strong> same insult.6-9 Line 26. It would seem that harvesting could be more readily addressed in <strong>the</strong> context <strong>of</strong>“identifiable PM episodes” than <strong>the</strong> typical time-series studies in which only day-to-dayvariability in concentration is studied. Is it being suggested that low level exposure mayhave a different lag pr<strong>of</strong>ile?6-40 Line 14. Should be “88" cities.6-42 Line 5-6. On p.6-7, <strong>the</strong> reported reasonable range <strong>of</strong> effects from <strong>the</strong> 1996 CD isestimated to be 2.5-5.0% increase per 50 mcg/m 3 . The 2.3% increase estimated inNMMAPS II is outside this range and <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e, strictly, not consistent. As noted, <strong>the</strong>rewere studies by 1996 showing statistically significant effects that were smaller than 2.5%(e.g., 1.8%), but that is not relevant. See also p.6-49 (line 19) and p.6-76 (line 3).6-43 Line 6-7. We do not know from NMMAPS II whe<strong>the</strong>r a different tack to trying toaccount <strong>for</strong> gaseous pollutant effects (see above) on <strong>the</strong> PM estimates would havereached different conclusions.6-44 Line 20-26. In <strong>the</strong> 10-Cities studies, <strong>the</strong> attempt to control <strong>for</strong> gaseous pollutant effectsis severely hampered by lack <strong>of</strong> power (see point 3 above).6-59 Line 26. This should be Table 6-3 ra<strong>the</strong>r than 6-1.6-61 Table 6.3. The “single pollutant models” heading is confusing, since this includes 2-pollutant model findings.6-62 Line 6. This should be Table 6-4 ra<strong>the</strong>r than 6-3.6-78 The threshold discussion here is premature, since no studies presenting data on thresholdshave been presented up to this point.6-92 Why is a 20 mcg/m 3 increment used <strong>for</strong> both PM 2.5 and PM 15 ?6-101 It is not clear why <strong>the</strong>se studies <strong>of</strong> mortality in children and on development (IUGR)(6.2.3.4) are included in a section on purported long-term effects on mortality, nor why atime-series study (Loomis p.6-104) is included. I would argue with <strong>the</strong> descriptor“likely” (p.6-103, line 5).Morbidity6-125 Line 14. This is not strictly a subset <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 88 cities, I believe (e.g., Boulder?).6-139 The Seaton study (line 26) also found a reduction in hemoglobin concentration inassociation with PM.6-141 I would not consider <strong>the</strong> data on blood viscosity as “highly suggestive” (line ), given <strong>the</strong>negative findings <strong>of</strong> several o<strong>the</strong>r studies including <strong>the</strong> more recent Seaton study (1999).6-141 Line 9. It should be noted that effects at longer lags are <strong>of</strong>ten not investigated.4-143 Line 25 to p.6-172. The point that <strong>the</strong> single “best” lag represents <strong>the</strong> most valid effectestimate, based on it being biased high but countered by not reflecting <strong>the</strong> full impact <strong>of</strong>multiple lags, is ingenious but never<strong>the</strong>less nonsense.6-173 Line 8. Power <strong>for</strong> Edinburgh <strong>for</strong> hospitalization counts (but not <strong>for</strong> mortality) should beadequate.6-175. Line 16. Why is <strong>the</strong> Sheppard study particularly “unique”?6-176. Line 13-17. The effects <strong>of</strong> acid aerosol and PM should not be compared on a mcg permcg basis.6-176 Line 3. Asthma ER visit studies that complicate <strong>the</strong> argument about fine PM hereinclude Lipsett 1997 from Coachella Valley on coarse PM and Chapela (year?) fromMexico City in which no PM effects were detected.Interpretation6-216 Line 25. Have some studies really looked at cardiac symptoms?6-226 The argument that SO 2 cannot be a confounder <strong>of</strong> PM because it is part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> causalpathway is wrong in most settings. If <strong>the</strong> point that is being made that we have effects <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> host <strong>of</strong> pollutants toge<strong>the</strong>r from similar sources (<strong>for</strong> example, summer haze), <strong>the</strong>n thisA - 15
is OK. But in most settings it still makes sense to speak <strong>of</strong> effects being due to PM orSO 2 .6-238 Line 26-27. The “best” lag approach again.6-256 The case-crossover study is first introduced here, but should be included in <strong>the</strong>intoduction to study designs on p.6-3.6-258 Line 27. I think “mortality” should be “morbidity”.6-266 Line 17. This is a misuse <strong>of</strong> “strong” in this setting. These are all weak associations.The associations may be consistent, coherent, and have large public health impacts, but<strong>the</strong>y are never<strong>the</strong>less relatively weak associations.Chapter 8. Toxicology.In general, this chapter does an excellent job <strong>of</strong> presenting a great deal <strong>of</strong> new, and <strong>of</strong>tenapparently conflicting, data. The summaries, especially <strong>the</strong> final summary, is well-reasoned andbalanced, and makes conclusions with appropriate qualifiers.As noted below, one important purpose <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> toxicological work is to enhance <strong>the</strong>plausibility <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> epidemiological findings. Much <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> work done using easily studiedparticles such as ROFA, and work using extremely high concentrations <strong>of</strong> particles, althougharguably useful when negative findings are obtained, are less relevant when attempting tointerpret positive findings. This strongly motivates <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> CAPs studies where real-worldparticles are used. It is argued that because <strong>of</strong> day-to-day variability in <strong>the</strong> particle composition<strong>of</strong> CAPs, that experimental studies will not have <strong>the</strong> statistical power to use a factor analysis tosuccessfully identify <strong>the</strong> components <strong>of</strong> CAPs that are particularly toxic. If valid, this wouldlimit <strong>the</strong> usefulness <strong>of</strong> CAPS. However, recent work by Koutrakis’s group (EHP 2000, seecomments by Koutrakis on this chapter) in which factor analysis was successfully used <strong>for</strong> thispurpose suggests that this is not <strong>the</strong> case. Although <strong>the</strong> findings from <strong>the</strong> multitude <strong>of</strong>toxicological studies are difficult to interpret, <strong>the</strong>y have contributed to enhancing <strong>the</strong> plausibility<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> epidemiological findings. It is anticipated, especially with fur<strong>the</strong>r work using CAPs, that<strong>the</strong> picture will become clearer as work progresses.Introduction8-3 I like <strong>the</strong> notion <strong>of</strong> enhancing biological plausibility, ra<strong>the</strong>r than assessing dose-response,at this stage.Respiratory effects8-20 The paragraphs beginning on line 11, as well as those on 8-37 and 8-43, present usefulperspectives on ROFA. The later discussion on <strong>the</strong> differences between trachealinstillation and inhalational exposures is also helpful.Systemic effects8-31 Line 27. Why does an increase in t-alternans suggest an anti-arrhythmic effect <strong>of</strong> PM?8-34 This summary in para 1 is excellent.Compromised8-41 What is <strong>the</strong> paragraph starting on line18 doing here? There seems little place <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>reference to <strong>the</strong> Nel paper, since <strong>the</strong> statement attributed to it (<strong>the</strong> increase in allergicrhinitis being due to diesel exhaust) is pure conjecture, unless it serves as a starting pointto present findings to support or refute it, which it does not.8-43 The paragraph starting on line16 on <strong>the</strong> Goldsmith paper is repetition <strong>of</strong> a previousparagraph on 8-37.Mechanisms8-65 Line 28. Need to justify <strong>the</strong> significance <strong>of</strong> alkaline phosphatase production, particularlysince it seems, based on <strong>the</strong> preceding sentences, that silicon dioxide was potent.8-68 The section on ultrafines beginning here presents an artificial motivation <strong>for</strong> interest inultrafines. Yes, surface area will increase dramatically as particle size decreases, <strong>for</strong> aA - 16
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