"Top Incomes in the Long Run of History" with Tony Atkinson and

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44Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XLIX (March 2011)3025ChinaArgentinaSingaporeIndonesiaIndiaTop percentile share (in percent)20151050192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005Figure 11. Top 1 Percent Share: Developing Countries, 1920–2005Source: Atkinson and Picketty (2007, 2010).What happened before 1914? In five cases,shown in italics, we have data for a number ofyears before the First World War. 30 Naturallythe evidence has to be treated with cautionand has evident limitations: for example, theGerman figures relate only to Prussia. But it30 We are referring here to the evidence from the studiesreviewed in this article. There are other sources thathave used income tax data for the nineteenth century. Wehave earlier cited the distribution published by Stamp(1916) for 1801 in the United Kingdom. The income taxsystems in Germany provide evidence going back to themiddle of the nineteenth century. Walter G. Hoffmann(1965, table 123) gave estimates of the Pareto coefficientfor Prussia and a number of other German states goingback, in the earliest case, to 1847 (on the German incometax data, see Oliver Grant 2005 and Dell 2008). The datafrom the U.S. Civil War income tax, and the abortive 1894income tax, were used by Soltow (1969). In the Civil Warperiod, he finds “remarkable stability” in the Pareto coefficient(the implied inverted Pareto coefficient is 3.33).is interesting that in the two Nordic countries(Sweden and Norway) the top shares seemsto have fallen somewhat at the very beginningof the twentieth century, a period when theymight have been in the upward part of theKuznets inverted-U. As is noted in Aabergeand Atkinson (2010) for Norway and Roineand Waldenstrom (2008) for Sweden, atthat time Norway and Sweden were largelyagrarian economies. In neither Japan northe United Kingdom is there evidence of atrend in top shares. In order to explore thepre-1914 period further, data apart from theincome tax records needs to be applied. Usinga variety of sources, including wealth data,Lindert (2000) concludes that, in the UnitedStates, “we know that income inequality musthave risen sometime between 1774 and anyof these three competing peak-inequality
Atkinson, Piketty, and Saez: Top Incomes in the Long Run of History45Share oftop 1%Table 6Comparative Top Income SharesAround 1949 Around 2005Share of top0.1%βcoefficientShare oftop 1%Share of top0.1%βcoefficientIndonesia 19.87 7.03 2.22Argentina 19.34 7.87 2.56 16.75 7.02 2.65Ireland 12.92 4.00 1.96 10.30 2.00Netherlands 12.05 3.80 2.00 5.38 1.08 1.43India 12.00 5.24 2.78 8.95 3.64 2.56Germany 11.60 3.90 2.11 11.10 4.40 2.49United Kingdom 11.47 3.45 1.92 14.25 5.19 2.28Australia 11.26 3.31 1.88 8.79 2.68 1.94United States 10.95 3.34 1.94 17.42 7.70 2.82Canada 10.69 2.91 1.77 13.56 5.23 2.42Singapore 10.38 3.24 1.98 13.28 4.29 2.04New Zealand 9.98 2.42 1.63 8.76 2.51 1.84Switzerland 9.88 3.23 2.06 7.76 2.67 2.16France 9.01 2.61 1.86 8.73 2.48 1.83Norway 8.88 2.74 1.96 11.82 5.59 3.08Japan 7.89 1.82 1.57 9.20 2.40 1.71Finland 7.71 1.63 7.08 2.65 2.34Sweden 7.64 1.96 1.69 6.28 1.91 1.93Spain 1.99 8.79 2.62 1.90Portugal 3.57 1.94 9.13 2.26 1.65Italy 9.03 2.55 1.82China 5.87 1.20 1.45Notes:(1) 1939 for Indonesia, 1943 for Ireland, 1950 for Germany and the Netherlands, 1954 for Spain.(2) 1995 for Switzerland, 1998 for Germany, 1999 for Netherlands, 1999–2000 for India, 2000 for Canada andIreland, 2002 for Australia, 2003 for Portugal, 2004 for Argentina, Italy, Norway and Sweden.(3) β coefficients are calculated using share of top 0.1 percent in top 1 percent (see table 13A.24 in Atkinson and Piketty2010), with the following exceptions: (i) β coefficient for Finland in 1949 calculated using share of top 1 percentin top 5 percent; (ii) β coefficient for Spain in 1949 calculated using share of top 0.01 percent in top 0.05 percent;(iii) β coefficient for Portugal in 1949 calculated using share of top 0.01 percent in top 0.1 percent; (iv) β coefficientfor Ireland in 2000 calculated using share of top 0.5 percent in top 1 percent.Source: Atkinson and Picketty (2007, 2010).dates: 1860, 1913 and 1929. . . . Beyond this,the evidence on the rise of unequal Americais only suggestive and incomplete” (p. 192).Using large samples of Parisian and nationalestate tax returns over the 1807–1994 period,Piketty, Gilles Postel-Vinay, and Jean-Laurent Rosenthal (2006) find that wealthconcentration rose continuously during the
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