TecHnoLoGy - Broadband Properties

Approaching the Zettabyte Era:Looking Ahead to 2012Broadband traffic – both on the Internet and within private networks –is continuing its explosive growth worldwide, the latest reports say.And video is only part of the story.Cisco Expects Sixfold IP TrafficGrowth by 2012IP traffic will nearly double every twoyears through 2012. We’re less thanfour years away from a half-zettabyteannual global network traffic volume.(A zettabyte is equal to 1,000 7 bytes, ora trillion gigabytes.) Indeed, Cisco Systems(www.cisco.com) is projecting thatglobal Internet traffic in 2012 will beover a thousand times greater than allthe traffic traversing the U.S. Internetbackbone in 2000.Cisco, using its almost unique abilityto gather and interpret IP network data,has developed a model for estimating futureglobal IP traffic growth. The CiscoVisual Network Index is the company’songoing effort to forecast the growth anduse of IP networking worldwide, and itis based on Cisco analysis and independentanalysts’ forecasts. Cisco is basingmuch of its IP NGN strategy on the expectationthat global traffic growth willcontinue to grow at an astonishing ratethrough 2011 and beyond. This trafficgrowth is being fueled by applicationssuch as mobile data traffic, business Internet,business IP WAN, consumer Internet,and IPTV/CATV applications.Highlights from the current forecast:• Global IP traffic will increase bya factor of six from 2007 to 2012,reaching 44 exabytes per month in2012, compared to fewer than 7 exabytesper month in 2007.• Total IP traffic for 2012 will amountto more than half a zettabyte (or 522exabytes).• Monthly global IP traffic in December2012 will be 11 exabytes higherthan in December 2011, a singleyearincrease that will exceed theamount by which traffic increased inthe eight years since 2000.• Video on demand (VoD), IP television(IPTV) and Internet TV willaccount for nearly 90 percent of allconsumer IP traffic in 2012.• Mobile data traffic will roughly doubleeach year from 2008 through 2012.Driven by HD video and high-speedbroadband penetration, consumer IPtraffic will power the overall IP compoundannual growth rate (CAGR)to 46 percent through 2012. Last yearwas one of phenomenal growth. TotalIP traffic grew 55 percent during 2007,and is estimated to grow by 63 percentin 2008. Internet traffic grew 46 percentin 2007, and is estimated to increase 51percent in 2008.Traffic from all applications grewin volume in 2007, but the traffic mixshifted considerably. Peer-to-peer (P2P)file-sharing networks are now carrying600 petabytes per month more thanthey did this time last year, which meansthere is the equivalent of an additional150 million DVDs crossing the networkeach month, for a total monthly volumeof over 500 million DVD equivalents,or two exabytes.Despite this growth, P2P as a proportionof consumer Internet traffic droppedto 51 percent at the end of 2007, downfrom 60 percent the year before. The declinein traffic share is due primarily tothe increasing video traffic. A secondaryfactor in the decline is a trend towardWeb-based file sharing in place of P2Pfile sharing in some regions.Video now accounts for approximatelyone quarter of all consumer Internettraffic, not including the amountof video exchanged through P2P filesharing. Internet video grew from 12percent in 2006 to 22 percent in 2007,and will reach 32 percent by the end ofthis year. Internet video will account for50 percent of all consumer Internet trafficin 2012. Internet video-to-PC willmake up the majority of Internet videoat 40 percent of total Internet traffic, butInternet video-to-TV will grow rapidlyto 10 percent of the total in 2012.Non-Internet IP video will increasemore rapidly than consumer Internet.The twin trends of on-demand viewingand high-definition video are generatingvery rapid growth in cable video andIPTV traffic transported over IP in the10 | BROADBAND PROPERTIES | www.broadbandproperties.com | July 2008