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WATER EDUCATION AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTImage: Lori Warren, Black & VeatchThe Colorado River is the force that carved the Grand Canyon and the lifeblood for communities, wildlife and recreation areasthroughout the basin. The study aimed to identify potential supplyand demand imbalances facing the Colorado River basin within theUnited States over the next 50 years, and to explore options andstrategies for resolving those imbalances. The study is the mostcomprehensive effort of its type to date and was designed aroundfour major components: future supply (hydrologic conditions),future demand, evaluation of options and strategies, and vulnerabilityanalysis.Given the size of this undertaking, a consultant team that includedprivate sector firms CH2M Hill, Black & Veatch and the RANDCorporation assisted throughout the three-year effort, providingtechnical expertise, analysis and report production. Stakeholder relationshipsand technical tools were critical to the study’s success. Formany of the study facets, multi-stakeholder work groups convenedto develop consensus on complex topics. Incorporating major viewpointsfrom various stakeholders resulted in creative alternatives,which benefited the study overall.The first phases of the study were water supply and demandassessment. A scenario planning approach was employed to considerthe full range of possible futures, rather than just attempting todetermine what was most likely to occur. This produced severalscenarios for both supply and demand. When coupled, the variouscombinations of supply and demand scenarios represent a broadrange of possible futures.Ultimately, four supply scenarios were agreed on. Thescenarios reflect hydrologic conditions based on:• paleo reconstructed (tree-ring) streamflow• gauge flow from the last century• a hybrid of reconstructed and gauge flow• modelled future conditions using data from climatemodel projections.Each scenario has unique characteristics regardingmean flow, variability and drought (surplus) magnitudeand persistence. Although stakeholders were familiarwith several of the scenarios from previous processes,care was taken to dedicate sufficient time to introduceand explain new hydrology data and methods. Thishelped build stakeholder confidence before proceedingwith other study phases. Stakeholder interest andinvestment in understanding these new approacheswere equally important to this process.Demand scenarios were rooted in a storyline developmentapproach. Collectively, through discussions,narratives of possible future demand conditions werecrafted, considering factors such as the economy, populationgrowth and location, environmental awarenessand agricultural practices. Appropriate stakeholders then[ 117 ]