DAP 2009/10 Final 1 - Taranaki District Health Board
DAP 2009/10 Final 1 - Taranaki District Health Board
DAP 2009/10 Final 1 - Taranaki District Health Board
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<strong>DAP</strong> <strong>2009</strong>/<strong>10</strong> <strong>Final</strong>Likewise, for DHB Funder operations:Unbudgeted financial riskEst. risk($’M)75% risk($’M)50% risk($’M)25% risk($’M)Probabilityfactor(% risk)IDF Outflows 0.50 0.38 0.25 0.13 50%Pharmaceutical CancerTreatments0.35 0.27 0.18 0.09 50%Other Pharmaceuticals 0.20 0.15 0.<strong>10</strong> 0.05 50%Likely impact on <strong>2009</strong>/<strong>10</strong>planned financial result1.05 0.80 0.50 0.25 0.53MThe overall exposure is estimated at around $1.0 M for <strong>2009</strong>/<strong>10</strong>, while the probabilityfactor is estimated to be around 50% leaving a residual risk equating to about$0.50M.Other areas of risk which cannot be quantified have also been identified, and include:Over delivery of volumes by the Provider ArmFailure to meet cardiac surgery targets impacting on overall funding ofadditional elective activityThis risk is expected to be managed within funding parameters and through efficiency gainsfrom current NGO contracts.65
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