Issue for October - December 2011 - National Institute of Rural ...

414 Ch.Radhika Rani, M.Vanaja, Santosh.K. Balitransportation of agricultural inputs andoutputs leads to emissions from theindustry, power and transport sectors,respectively.It is observed that though thecontribution for climate change can beattributed to agriculture which is the majorsource of livelihood of developing countrieslike India, its contribution to green houseproblem has been much smaller whencompared to that of developed countrieswhich are responsible for more than 60 percent of green house gases added in the last100 years (WRI, 2001). In terms of worldcarbon dioxide emissions for global warming,the contribution of Indian agriculture was 0.23per cent (Bhatia.A.2004). It is felt that theunsustainable fossil fuel based consumptionpatterns of the rich industrialised nations areresponsible for the threat of climate change.Only 25 per cent of the global population livesin these countries, but they emit more than70 per cent of the total global carbon dioxideemissions and consume 75 to 80 per cent ofmany of the other resources of the world(Parikh et. al. 1991). Though our country standsin top five countries in terms of green housegas emissions, the difference between firstand other countries in terms of total volumeof emissions is very large. For example, in theyear 2005, the total CO 2emissions from Indiawere 1.1 BT and the same from China was 4.7BT and USA was 5.9 BT (The Guardian). Pathaket.al. (2002) emphasised the need for anequitable and efficient solution to climatechange and suggest that efficiency can beobtained through a system of tradableemission quotas and equity through equalallocation of global environmental space toall human beings.Another theme of Indian analysts hasbeen the lack of reliability of GHG emissionestimates particularly of methane. Accordingto initial estimates, large emissions of methanefrom paddy fields were ascribed to developingcountries. However, the empirical basis ofthese estimates was questioned subsequently.Experimental measurements by Indianresearchers showed these doubts to be wellfounded (Mitra 1996). ICAR estimates showthat methane and nitrous oxide from Indianagricultural soils are responsible for only about0.23 and 0.1 per cent, respectively (Bhatia et.al.2004).Impact of Climate Change on AgricultureGiven that rain-dependent agriculturalarea constitutes about 60 per cent of the netsown area of 142 mha (TERI 2003), Indianagriculture continues to be fundamentallydependent on the weather, with much of therecent high growth rates being the result of anumber of successive good monsoons.Indian climate is dominated by the southwestmonsoon, which brings most of theregion’s precipitation. It is critical for theavailability of drinking water and irrigation foragriculture. Agricultural productivity issensitive to the following classes of climateinducedeffects :* Effect of increasing temperature oncrops.* Direct effect of increasing levels of CO 2on crops.Effect of Temperature : The change ofweather with respect to temperature indifferent seasons is very characteristic in India.One of the major green house effects wouldbe an increase in global mean temperatureranging from 1.5 to 4.5 0 C. At present it is notclear as to how this global mean temperaturewould be distributed in different regions ofthe world. However, it is predicted that therecould be serious effects on the productivityof many crops.Cereals are the major foodgrains forconsumption in our country. SinceJournal of Rural Development, Vol. 30, No. 4, October - December : 2011