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Structural Design and Response in Collision and Grounding

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3 PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORKFigure 2 illustrates the process proposed to predict theprobabilistic extent of damage <strong>in</strong> collision as a function ofship structural design [7]. A similar process is proposedfor ground<strong>in</strong>g.Probability given collisionPo<strong>in</strong>t puncture, rak<strong>in</strong>g puncture,penetrat<strong>in</strong>g collisionPdf's:Strik<strong>in</strong>g ship speedStrik<strong>in</strong>g ship displacementStrik<strong>in</strong>g ship draft & bow heightStrik<strong>in</strong>g ship bow shape <strong>and</strong> stiffness<strong>Collision</strong> strik<strong>in</strong>g location & angleStruck ship design variables:Type (SH,DH,IOTD,DS,DB,DS)LBP, B, DSpeed & displacementSubdivision<strong>Structural</strong> designMonte CarloSimulationSpecificcollisionscenario'sPdf parametrics for extentof damage as a functionof struck ship designExtent ofDamageCalculationRegressionanalysisjo<strong>in</strong>t pdf forlongitud<strong>in</strong>al, vertical <strong>and</strong>transverse extent ofdamage:Figure 2 - Process to Predict Probabilistic Damage [7]The process beg<strong>in</strong>s with a set of probability densityfunctions (pdfs) def<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g possible ground<strong>in</strong>g or collisionscenarios. Us<strong>in</strong>g these pdfs, a specific scenario isselected <strong>in</strong> a Monte Carlo simulation, <strong>and</strong> comb<strong>in</strong>ed witha specific ship structural design to predict damage. Thisprocess is repeated for thous<strong>and</strong>s of scenarios <strong>and</strong> a rangeof structural designs until sufficient data is generated tobuild a set of parametric equations relat<strong>in</strong>g probabilisticdamage extent to structural design. These parametricequations can then be used <strong>in</strong> oil outflow or damagestability calculations.1210864204.5Bottom Damage Longitud<strong>in</strong>al Extent PDF0.5DAMAGE Generated Po<strong>in</strong>tsMARPOL St<strong>and</strong>ard-20 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1Length of Damage / Ship LengthFigure 3 – Bottom Damage pdf [6]0.5A damage pdf generated <strong>in</strong> an early application ofthis approach is shown <strong>in</strong> Figure 3 [6]. This pdf wasgenerated for a MARPOL s<strong>in</strong>gle hull tanker typical of thestruck ships represented <strong>in</strong> the data used to develop thecurrent MARPOL damage pdfs.4 GROUNDING MODELS4.1 Background <strong>and</strong> PlanThe Exxon Valdez accident <strong>in</strong> 1989 <strong>and</strong> the regulatoryevents follow<strong>in</strong>g it lead to active research on structuralbehavior <strong>in</strong> ground<strong>in</strong>g. The earlier studies had beenmostly empirical, the best-known be<strong>in</strong>g a study by Card[8] who surveyed 30 ground<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>cidents to determ<strong>in</strong>e theeffectiveness of a double bottom <strong>in</strong> reduc<strong>in</strong>g pollution.More recent studies have <strong>in</strong>cluded large numericalsimulations, small <strong>and</strong> large scale experiments, <strong>and</strong> thedevelopment of simplified methods. Many of thesestudies were supported by the project “Protection of OilSpills from Crude Oil Tankers” carried out by theJapanese Association for the <strong>Structural</strong> Improvement ofShipbuild<strong>in</strong>g Industry (ASIS). In the United States, theCarderock Division of the Naval Surface Warfare Center(NSWCCD) conducted ground<strong>in</strong>g experiments, <strong>and</strong> theMIT-Jo<strong>in</strong>t Industry Project on Tanker Safety developedsoftware to analyze structural damage <strong>in</strong> ground<strong>in</strong>g.Development of analytical models for the software wassupported by experimental studies. Active research efforton ground<strong>in</strong>g analysis has been carried out also <strong>in</strong>Europe, ma<strong>in</strong>ly <strong>in</strong> Denmark <strong>and</strong> the Netherl<strong>and</strong>s.The Specialist Panel V.4 of the 1997 InternationalShip <strong>and</strong> Offshore Structures Congress (ISSC 1997) [9]reviewed the state-of-the-art of the research <strong>and</strong>concluded that nonl<strong>in</strong>ear f<strong>in</strong>ite element analysis coupledwith calculation of ship motions had reached a level atwhich a fairly accurate prediction of the structuralresponse was possible. However, the report noted thats<strong>in</strong>ce the method is time consum<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> requires a highlevelof expertise, it is not suitable for the design orregulatory environment. The report also concluded thatthe simplified methods that existed at the time requiredfurther validation.This study concentrates on evaluation of the exist<strong>in</strong>gsimplified methods, which have been further developeds<strong>in</strong>ce the ISSC 1997 report. The objective is to assesstheir suitability for design <strong>and</strong> regulatory work.4.2 Models Included <strong>in</strong> the Current StudyThe methods evaluated <strong>in</strong> this study <strong>in</strong>clude DAMAGE, asoftware tool developed by the MIT-Jo<strong>in</strong>t Industry Projecton Tanker Safety, <strong>and</strong> a simple analytical methoddeveloped by Dr. Wang at the University of Tokyo(method by Wang). Both methods calculate ground<strong>in</strong>g3

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