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Ireland’s Long Run Social Development and Vulnerabilitywere granted. In the same period 1,035 judicial separations and 56annulments were granted.By 1990, the Irish Total Fertility Rate 7 (TFR) had fallen to one-halfof the level of 1970 and come within the low range common amongwestern countries. Between 1994 and 1998, however, the totalfertility rate recovered somewhat to reach 1.9, placing it at the toprange of EU member states, but still below the replacement level of2.1 8 (the rate first fell below the replacement level in 1989) 9 . TheCSO, in its projections, conclude that this slight recovery in fertilityis unlikely to be maintained and that the long-term decline can beexpected to resume, but at a more moderate rate (1999: 11).The birth rate (number of births per 1,000 population) can pursue adistinct course to the TFR, i.e., it can rise even while fertility ratesare falling simply because the proportion of women of childbearingage in the population is increasing. The number of births in Irelandreached a low point of 48,000 in 1994 but, after that, it increasedeach year to reach over 54,200 in 2000, an increase of 13 per centon 1994 (although still 27 per cent lower than a 1980 peak). Thebirth rate per thousand of population for the first two quarters of2001 stood at approximately 15.1, compared to a rate of 14.3 for2000.One of the most striking trends in relation to births has been thegrowing proportion of births taking place outside of marriage. CSOfigures show that in 1986 non-marital births accounted for one outof every ten births in Ireland; by 1995, the incidence had increased7. The technical definition of the TFR given by the CSO is that it “represents thetheoretical average number of children who would be born alive to a womanduring her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years (ages 15-49) conforming to the age specific fertility rates of a given year”.8. The estimated replacement rate in order for the population to reproduce itselfis 2.1 (CSO, 1999).9. The CSO in its Population and Labour Force Projections 2000-2031(1999:10) give an indication of the impact of decreases in fertility ratesbetween the mid-1960s and mid-1990s by calculating the theoretical numberof births which would have occurred in 1996 if the age specific fertility ratesof 1965 still applied. Using the 1965 rate, the number of births in 1996 wouldhave been double what it actually was, 107,000 as opposed to the actual figurein 1996 of 50,000 births.81