156 Toll Road Study and Appendices - Transportation Agency for ...

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M E M O R A N D U MDate: May 10, 2013 JN 70-100455To:From:Subject:Transportation Agency for Monterey CountyWilliam Thomas, RBF / BakerRegan Miller, P.E., RBF / BakerTolling Traffic and Revenue Study Highway 156 Corridor – Traffic andRevenue Forecasts AnalysisThe Tolling Traffic and Revenue Study Highway 156 Corridor consists of a “sketch-level”analysis, a high-level investigation into revenue potential, to determine if a new fundingsource, specifically tolling, could generate sufficient revenue to construct a new alignmentHighway 156 from Castroville to Prunedale in north Monterey County. This section of thestudy utilizes the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG) Regional TravelDemand Model (RTDM) (version 1.5), including population and socioeconomic data,existing traffic volumes and travel time observations to estimate traveler’s sensitivity to tollsand, in turn, the potential revenue generated by tolling.Toll revenue is a function of travel demand and how it changes with respect to the openingof a new alignment Highway 156, and the response of travelers to specific tolls. This studyinvestigated tolling plans and toll rates to determine values that balance financial feasibility(toll revenues) with the economic feasibility of using new alignment Highway 156 –providing the most toll revenue while minimizing toll induced diversion and impact on otherroadways in the corridor.3180 Imjin Road, Suite 110, Marina, California 93933 # 831.883.8187 # FAX 831.883.9967Offices located throughout California, Arizona & Nevada ■ www.RBF.com
Tolling Traffic and Revenue Study Highway 156 CorridorTraffic and Revenue AnalysisREGIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND MODELThe AMBAG RTDM includes population, economic and transportation characteristics of notonly the three counties in AMBAG’s region, Monterey, Santa Benito and Santa Cruzcounties but Santa Clara County as well. The AMBAG RTDM contributed to several aspectsof this study including estimation of traffic growth and travel time savings, as well asdetermining the characteristics of the travel market that travel on Highway 156.Roadway NetworkThe AMBAG RTDM provided forecasts of travel demand growth on Highway 156, underthree (3) scenarios, including the following: Base Year 2005 Intermediate Year 2019 – Determined based on the original project scheduleopening year for Route 156 West Corridor Phase 1 Horizon Year 2035Data sets necessary to estimate Base Year and Horizon Year traffic were readily availableand were supplied with the AMBAG RTDM. This data included the transportation networkand variables such as recorded traffic volumes, population, employment, households,dwelling units, trip rates and transit ridership.The road network for the Intermediate Year 2019 was determined through coordinationwith the Transportation Agency for Monterey County (TAMC). Only projects included inthe 2010 Monterey Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) with funding by the year 2019 wereincluded. Through coordination with TAMC, the following programmed roadwayimprovements were included in the Intermediate Year 2019 roadway network:Highway 101 – San Juan Road InterchangeHighway 101 – Prunedale Improvement ProjectLand use data for Intermediate Year 2019 was developed by interpolating population andsocioeconomic data between year 2005 and year 2035 values supplied with the AMBAGRTDM.The transportation network for Horizon Year 2035 was created by adding attributes forappropriate capacity increasing projects from the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) tothe Base Year 2005. 1 In addition, the Horizon Year 2035 transportation network includesprojects from the regions’ General Plans and Specific Plans. The transit network associated1 p.9; “AMBAG Regional Travel Demand Model, Model Development Report, 2005 Base YearModel”; Association of Monterey Area Governments; March 2011.2
Page 5: STATE ROUTE 156 Tolling Traffic and
Page 8 and 9: Historic scheduling of these improv
Page 10 and 11: The Route 156 West Corridor Project
Page 12 and 13: e sought to support the constructio
Page 14 and 15: Why can’t we improve the intercha
Page 16 and 17: What amount will an individual be t
Page 18: STATE ROUTE 156 Tolling Traffic and
Page 21 and 22: STATE ROUTE 156 Tolling Traffic and
Page 23 and 24: Updated 10-1-12
Page 25: Updated 10-1-12
Page 28 and 29: APPENDIX BTraffic and Revenue Forec
Page 32 and 33: Tolling Traffic and Revenue Study H
Page 48 and 49: Revenue Schedule - Tolling Plan "B"
Page 50 and 51: Revenue Schedule - Tolling Plan "D"
Page 52 and 53: APPENDIX CFinancial Feasibility Ana
Page 54 and 55: 50 California StreetSuite 2300San F
Page 56 and 57: Highway 156 Financial Feasbility An
Page 64 and 65: SR 156Scenario A; April 08, 2013I.
Page 66 and 67: III. Debt Service CoveragePledged C
Page 68 and 69: V. TIFIA LLCR and ReserveSurplusTIF
Page 70 and 71: VII. SpreadsMMD as ofAAA Taxable as
Page 72 and 73: II. Bonds Debt ServiceCIB 1 CIB 1 C
Page 74 and 75: IV. TIFIA Loan ScheduleCurrent Year
Page 76 and 77: VI. Aggregate Flow of FundsResidual
Page 78 and 79: SR 156Scenario C Phase 1; April 08,
Page 80 and 81:
III. Debt Service CoveragePledged C
Page 82 and 83:
V. TIFIA LLCR and ReserveSurplusTIF
Page 84 and 85:
VII. SpreadsMMD as ofAAA Taxable as
Page 86 and 87:
II. Bonds Debt ServiceCIB 1 CIB 1 C
Page 88 and 89:
IV. TIFIA Loan ScheduleCurrent Year
Page 90 and 91:
VI. Aggregate Flow of FundsResidual
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