156 Toll Road Study and Appendices - Transportation Agency for ...

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Highway 156 Financial Feasbility AnalysisPage 9 of 10May 10, 2013Estimated Toll Revenues Remaining After O&M and Debt ServiceCumulative BalanceScenarioYear A B C D2022 $ 7,925,000 $ 6,211,000 $ 10,487,000 $ 8,721,0002030 51,385,000 35,539,000 73,623,000 50,345,0002040 132,025,000 103,642,000 189,328,000 137,223,0002050 254,902,000 212,543,000 363,000,000 271,902,000Remaining revenues in 2022 are fairly low, following the Phase 1 opening in 2021. Under ScenariosA and C, remaining revenues after debt service and O&M increase at a higher rate even though therevenue forecasts are lower for those two scenarios. This is because there is no additionalborrowing for Phase 2 under Scenarios A and C. With the additional bonds issued in 2025 underScenarios B and D, there is additional debt service that requires more net revenues over time.Therein is the tradeoff associated with borrowing of any kind: proceeds today for reduced revenuesdownstream. This is required in order to finance the project that will produce those revenues.While revenues increase by 2050, there is increased uncertainty with those long-dated forecast years,and those dollars are stated in nominal, inflated terms. Their present value will be much lower.Summary of Findings and Next StepsThis preliminary analysis demonstrates that Route 156 West Corridor Phase 1, includingconstruction of a new alignment, four-lane, Highway 156, and a new interchange at Highway 156and Castroville Boulevard, is financially feasible. That is, in addition to the expected federal, stateand local funds, the net toll revenues would be sufficient to support and repay toll revenue bondsand a TIFIA loan to finance a total of approximately $70 million in un-funded project costs forPhase 1 and pay the operations and maintenance costs.Improving operations and safety at the Highway 101 and Highway 156 interchange is important;however Phase 2 capital costs more than double the project costs, from $109 million to $264million, as demonstrated in Table 1. With the additional travel benefits associated with Phase 2, it isanticipated that Phase 2 (together with excess revenue from Phase 1) would generate between $66million and $95 million in net toll revenue bond proceeds for construction in 2025, depending onthe tolling plan that is used. However, this additional funding falls short of the Phase 2 fundingrequirements which are, approximately $155 million.As noted throughout this analysis, this is a preliminary and “sketch-level” financial feasibilityanalysis. Going forward, TAMC in collaboration with Caltrans may wish to refine the traffic andrevenue analysis. New results from that analysis will provide a more detailed and robust set offinancial results. As new information becomes available, PFM will be pleased to update and refinethis feasibility analysis and prepare a plan of finance associated with project delivery.
Highway 156 Financial Feasbility AnalysisPage 10 of 10May 10, 2013The following appendices provide the detailed annual schedules for the plan of finance.Appendix – Result SummaryI. Scenario AII.III.IV.Scenario BScenario CScenario D
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STATE ROUTE 156 Tolling Traffic and
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Historic scheduling of these improv
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The Route 156 West Corridor Project
Page 12 and 13: e sought to support the constructio
Page 14 and 15: Why can’t we improve the intercha
Page 16 and 17: What amount will an individual be t
Page 18: STATE ROUTE 156 Tolling Traffic and
Page 21 and 22: STATE ROUTE 156 Tolling Traffic and
Page 23 and 24: Updated 10-1-12
Page 25: Updated 10-1-12
Page 28 and 29: APPENDIX BTraffic and Revenue Forec
Page 30 and 31: M E M O R A N D U MDate: May 10, 20
Page 32 and 33: Tolling Traffic and Revenue Study H
Page 48 and 49: Revenue Schedule - Tolling Plan "B"
Page 50 and 51: Revenue Schedule - Tolling Plan "D"
Page 52 and 53: APPENDIX CFinancial Feasibility Ana
Page 54 and 55: 50 California StreetSuite 2300San F
Page 56 and 57: Highway 156 Financial Feasbility An
Page 64 and 65: SR 156Scenario A; April 08, 2013I.
Page 66 and 67: III. Debt Service CoveragePledged C
Page 68 and 69: V. TIFIA LLCR and ReserveSurplusTIF
Page 70 and 71: VII. SpreadsMMD as ofAAA Taxable as
Page 72 and 73: II. Bonds Debt ServiceCIB 1 CIB 1 C
Page 74 and 75: IV. TIFIA Loan ScheduleCurrent Year
Page 76 and 77: VI. Aggregate Flow of FundsResidual
Page 78 and 79: SR 156Scenario C Phase 1; April 08,
Page 80 and 81: III. Debt Service CoveragePledged C
Page 82 and 83: V. TIFIA LLCR and ReserveSurplusTIF
Page 84 and 85: VII. SpreadsMMD as ofAAA Taxable as
Page 86 and 87: II. Bonds Debt ServiceCIB 1 CIB 1 C
Page 88 and 89: IV. TIFIA Loan ScheduleCurrent Year
Page 90 and 91: VI. Aggregate Flow of FundsResidual
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