156 Toll Road Study and Appendices - Transportation Agency for ...

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Tolling Traffic and Revenue Study Highway 156 CorridorTraffic and Revenue AnalysisHeavy Vehicle RevenueHeavy vehicles were assumed to comprise 6-7% of all vehicles traveling on Highway 156 onweekdays and 3% of all vehicles on weekend days for all analysis years. This estimate wasbased on the AMBAG RTDM forecasts of trucks.Conversion from Daily Revenue to Annual RevenueThe forecasts reflect weekday and weekend day travel demand and revenue, but thefinancial analysis requires annual toll revenue. Separate annualization factors respectivelyconvert representative weekday and weekend forecasts to annual revenue. Since forecastsreflect annual average weekday and weekend day traffic and revenue, factors are ‘260’ and‘105’ respectively.Revenue Ramp-UpIt is common for toll facilities to experience a “ramp-up” period after project opening toallow travelers to adjust their trip pattern, gain familiarity with the facility, and thesurrounding development to reach the steady state conditions forecasted by the RTDM.During this ramp-up period, toll revenues are typically lower than predicted by theforecasting model. This study assumes a revenue discount for the first three years ofoperation of 20%, 10%, and 5% respectively.Attached are revenue schedules for the four (4) tolling plans studied.17
Revenue Schedule - Tolling Plan "A"Weekday AnnualInflated Revenue(current $)Weekend AnnualInflated Revenue(current $)Total Annual InflatedYear Revenue (current $)2021 7,603,265 5,069,767 2,533,4982022 8,876,611 5,918,821 2,957,7902023 9,722,036 6,482,542 3,239,4942024 10,616,920 7,079,241 3,537,6782025 11,012,881 7,343,266 3,669,6162026 11,422,005 7,616,066 3,805,9392027 11,844,702 7,897,918 3,946,7852028 12,281,396 8,189,102 4,092,2942029 12,732,521 8,489,908 4,242,6122030 13,198,526 8,800,637 4,397,8882031 13,679,874 9,121,597 4,558,2772032 14,177,040 9,453,104 4,723,9362033 14,690,514 9,795,485 4,895,0292034 15,220,802 10,149,077 5,071,7252035 15,768,422 10,514,226 5,254,1962036 16,333,910 10,891,290 5,442,6202037 16,917,818 11,280,636 5,637,1822038 17,520,712 11,682,641 5,838,0712039 18,143,177 12,097,697 6,045,4802040 18,785,815 12,526,204 6,259,6112041 19,449,246 12,968,575 6,480,6712042 20,134,107 13,425,236 6,708,8712043 20,841,055 13,896,624 6,944,4312044 21,570,766 14,383,191 7,187,5752045 22,323,938 14,885,401 7,438,5372046 23,101,287 15,403,732 7,697,5542047 23,903,550 15,938,677 7,964,8732048 24,731,488 16,490,741 8,240,7482049 25,585,884 17,060,446 8,525,4382050 26,467,542 17,648,331 8,819,2112051 27,377,292 18,254,946 9,122,3462052 28,315,987 18,880,863 9,435,1252053 29,284,506 19,526,665 9,757,8412054 30,283,754 20,192,958 10,090,7962055 31,314,661 20,880,360 10,434,3002056 32,378,186 21,589,513 10,788,6732057 33,475,316 22,321,072 11,154,2432058 34,607,065 23,075,716 11,531,3492059 35,774,481 23,854,142 11,920,3382060 36,978,637 24,657,067 12,321,5702061 38,220,643 25,485,229 12,735,414Revised02/10/13Notes:1. Reflects 5% transaction and 5% revenue leakage associated with ORT collection
Page 5: STATE ROUTE 156 Tolling Traffic and
Page 8 and 9: Historic scheduling of these improv
Page 10 and 11: The Route 156 West Corridor Project
Page 12 and 13: e sought to support the constructio
Page 14 and 15: Why can’t we improve the intercha
Page 16 and 17: What amount will an individual be t
Page 18: STATE ROUTE 156 Tolling Traffic and
Page 21 and 22: STATE ROUTE 156 Tolling Traffic and
Page 23 and 24: Updated 10-1-12
Page 25: Updated 10-1-12
Page 28 and 29: APPENDIX BTraffic and Revenue Forec
Page 30 and 31: M E M O R A N D U MDate: May 10, 20
Page 32 and 33: Tolling Traffic and Revenue Study H
Page 48 and 49: Revenue Schedule - Tolling Plan "B"
Page 50 and 51: Revenue Schedule - Tolling Plan "D"
Page 52 and 53: APPENDIX CFinancial Feasibility Ana
Page 54 and 55: 50 California StreetSuite 2300San F
Page 56 and 57: Highway 156 Financial Feasbility An
Page 64 and 65: SR 156Scenario A; April 08, 2013I.
Page 66 and 67: III. Debt Service CoveragePledged C
Page 68 and 69: V. TIFIA LLCR and ReserveSurplusTIF
Page 70 and 71: VII. SpreadsMMD as ofAAA Taxable as
Page 72 and 73: II. Bonds Debt ServiceCIB 1 CIB 1 C
Page 74 and 75: IV. TIFIA Loan ScheduleCurrent Year
Page 76 and 77: VI. Aggregate Flow of FundsResidual
Page 78 and 79: SR 156Scenario C Phase 1; April 08,
Page 80 and 81: III. Debt Service CoveragePledged C
Page 82 and 83: V. TIFIA LLCR and ReserveSurplusTIF
Page 84 and 85: VII. SpreadsMMD as ofAAA Taxable as
Page 86 and 87: II. Bonds Debt ServiceCIB 1 CIB 1 C
Page 88 and 89: IV. TIFIA Loan ScheduleCurrent Year
Page 90 and 91: VI. Aggregate Flow of FundsResidual

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