SPR-696: Preliminary Study of Climate Adaptation for the Statewide ...

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WildfiresIt is likely that fires will increase in the Southwest. Record wildfires are driven by risingtemperatures and related reductions in spring snowpack and soil moisture (USGCRP, 2009). The2002 Rodeo-Chedisky fire was the largest Arizona fire in recorded history. That incident createda level of severe burning unprecedented in ponderosa pine forests (Pew, 2007). The combinationof fire exclusion and exotic species has made dry woody systems more sensitive to droughtconditions, and increased the likelihood of greater fire intensity and spread in the future (Pew,2007). Climate-fire dynamics also will alter iconic landscapes like the Sonoran Desert, assucculents are replaced by red brome and buffle grass (UCGCRP, 2009).Wildlife HabitatsClimate change will likely exacerbate the current rate of habitat loss in Arizona. At a minimum,it will lead to the changes in composition and structure of ecosystems, loss or fragmentation ofhabitat, and the alteration of hydrology. Researchers have agreed that warming is alreadyoccurring across many habitats and watersheds in the Southwest, and species and ecologicaleffects associated with this warming are already apparent (Robles and Enquist, 2011). In a studycommissioned by the Southwest Climate Change Initiative, researchers found that 90 percent ofhabitats in the Southwest have warmed significantly in the past 55 years, and very likelycontributed to ecological changes in 40 percent of southwestern habitats. This resulted inchanges in the timing of species events, widespread insect infestations and forest tree mortality.Habitats having the highest temperature change and the most species of conservation concerninclude subalpine forests, piñon-juniper woodlands, sage shrublands, and Colorado Plateaucanyonlands and grasslands. These habitats include at least 119 plant and animal speciesaffected by climate change (Robles and Enquist, 2011).CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTUREArizona has an extensive and expansive transportation infrastructure system, including more than6,000 miles of roads and highways, nearly a dozen commercial airports, and several majorpassenger and freight rail lines. This infrastructure could be vulnerable to such impacts as thoseoutlined in Arizona’s Executive Order 2005-02, including prolonged drought, severe forest fires,warmer temperatures, increased snowmelt, and reduced snowpack.The reality of a changing climate means that transportation and planning agencies mustunderstand the potential effects of climate change.The significant uncertainties inherent in projecting long-term changes to climate, coupled withthe long service life of most ADOT infrastructure and assets, present a complex challenge for theagency’s decision makers. Approaching these choices using a climate vulnerability and riskframework will enable ADOT to consider multiple dimensions of risk when directinginvestments, ensuring the long-term resiliency of infrastructure and assets, as well as the crucialoperations they support.14
In 2008, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) published Special Report 290, PotentialImpacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation (National Research Council [NRC], 2008). Inthis report, adaptation to climate change within the transportation sector falls into threecategories of actions: 1) operational changes, 2) design changes, and 3) other actions.Climate variability and extreme events, such as storms and precipitation of increased intensity,will require changing operational responses from transportation providers. While U.S.transportation providers already address the impacts of weather on transportation systemoperations in a diverse range of climatic conditions, existing planning does not take into accountlong-term changes in climate. Operational changes may include adjusting maintenance (both inthe timing and type of maintenance), improved monitoring of conditions (both climatic andinfrastructure conditions), incorporating climate scenario modeling into infrastructure planning,modifying procedures for emergency management, and altering construction schedules. Ingeneral, operational changes will apply to procedural planning at varying degrees of adjustment.For example, greater use of technology, such as climate scenario modeling, can enableinfrastructure providers to monitor climate changes and receive advance warning of potentialfailures due to changing conditions (such as water levels and currents, wave action, winds, andtemperatures), exceeding what the infrastructure was designed to withstand.While transportation planning efforts do take weather conditions into account in the design ofinfrastructure, there is less examination of whether current design standards are sufficient toaccommodate climate change. For example, the increased summer temperatures and theincreased number of very hot days may result in additional highway asphalt rutting. Arizonaalready uses heat-resistant paving materials, although effects of climate change may magnify oraccelerate the need for maintenance. If climate projects indicate that the current number of daysexceeding a certain temperature will occur more frequently, the design standards for pavementwould need to be updated to consider these changing conditions. Examples of design strategiesinclude development and application of new, heat-resistant paving materials; greater use of heattolerantstreet and highway landscaping; proper design/construction of milling out ruts; andoverlay with more rut-resistant asphalt.In addition to operational and design changes, other types of adaptation options are available fortransportation infrastructure. Transportation planning and land use controls, especiallyconcerning new construction and development, can integrate projected climate changes into theplanning process. For example, development can be restricted or prohibited in zones most at riskfrom storm surges, flooding, and wildfire events. In addition, culverts could be revisited orexpanded to deal with increased extreme precipitation events. From the policy side, long-rangeplanning and promoting cross-agency collaboration are two examples of other potentialadaptation actions for transportation planning.SUMMARY OF CLIMATE IMPACTS RELEVANT FOR ARIZONA’STRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTUREThe Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) produced a summary of studies investigatingadaptation options for transportation infrastructure, organized by climate impact. Table 2 adaptsthis summary of studies with a focus on climate impacts relevant for Arizona’s geography.15
Page 1: Preliminary Study ofClimate Adaptat
Page 4 and 5: This report was funded in part thro
Page 7 and 8: CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........
Page 9 and 10: LIST OF FIGURESFigure 1. ADOT Clima
Page 11 and 12: LIST OF ACRONYMSAASHTO ............
Page 13: ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe authors are espe
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Page 23 and 24: CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEWThis re
Page 25 and 26: Source: National Oceanic and Atmosp
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Page 31 and 32: Table 2. Projected Climate Impacts
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Page 41: states may invite experts from the
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Page 49 and 50: TopicCurrent ADOTResources for Clim
Page 51 and 52: Relevance of Climate Change Impacts
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Page 71 and 72: REFERENCESArizona Department of Tra
Page 73: Robles, M. D. and C. Enquist. 2011.
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While complete reports are not yet
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adaptation program development effo
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APPENDIX C. SURVEY RESPONSES BY QUE
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Table 8. Question 2B ResponsesRespo
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Table 9. Question 4B ResponsesRespo
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Relevance of Climate ImpactsPercent
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Table 10. Question 5B Responses (Co
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Table 12. Question 7 Responses (Con
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APPENDIX D. INTERVIEW AND FOCUS GRO
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FOCUS GROUP SIGN-IN SHEETTitleElect
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esponses provided us with valuable
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4. Which departments typically mana
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Finally, if participants think of a
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