Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure - UN CC:Learn

Chapter 7: A Framework for Risk Assessment and Risk-Informed Decision-Making for Infrastructure DevelopmentPART IIThreats of climate change in the context of limited resources can motivate societies to improve developmentfor its ensured sustainability. The consequences of increased climate-related events necessitateimmediate support based on best available knowledge. Using scenarios and knowledge developed bynatural scientists, engineers must focus efforts on assessing and identifying efficient means for circumventingor mitigating risks.TechnicalPresentation 1What a Country ShouldThink About andThen Do to AddressClimate Change andInfrastructure RisksThe need for risk assessment and risk-informed decision-makingfor infrastructureInfrastructure plays a key role in society by providing the basis for production and economic growth.Reciprocally, economic capacity and access to natural resources affect the capacity to develop and maintaininfrastructure. Investing in infrastructure must be balanced with benefitting economically from infrastructureon local, national, regional and global scales. This requires a holistic perspective for prioritizingsocietal investments.The primary challenges in sustainable risk-based infrastructure development are in assessing risks,communicating risks to all stakeholders, identifying relevant and efficient risk-reduction measures, anddeciding how to prioritize resources in society for risk management. These challenges warrant a frameworkfor risk assessment and risk-informed decision-making.Risk, sustainability and governanceThe need for sustainable development implies the current generation’s responsibility to ensure thatresource use is in balance with long-term capacity building and the priority of equity for safeguardingboth current lives and the lives of future generations. Given that risks indicate not what might happen, butwhat certainly will happen in the future, the need to develop sustainably suggests the critical importanceof good practices in risk assessment and optimal risk-based decision-making.Climate change risk constitutes a local, national and global issue caused by human decisions, and so mustbe addressed through centralized governance from local to global levels. Because risk is effectively equivalentto future losses, failure to make decisions about how to manage risks efficiently and consistently canresult in the most significant loss for society: systemic failure. While knowledge for predicting scenarios (ofwhat hazards will look like) and for analysing future situations is available, societies have still failed to makegood decisions based on this information. Risk-informed governance supported by normative decisionanalysis provides the basic framework for ensuring sustainable development.The risk management frameworkIn the last ten years, the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) has developed a technical frameworkfor assessing and managing risks. This systematic approach includes several principles established by JCSSfor risk-based decision-making in engineering: (1) Bayesian probabilistic decision theory (as economicdecision theory; i.e. theory of probability decision rules based on a priori information), (2) methods ofprobabilistic mechanics, (3) direct/indirect consequences, (4) risk-based systems modeling, (5) genericrisk models using indicators (i.e. generic models that can be adapted to different situations), (6) decisionranking/selection (consistent with available knowledge), (7) socio-economical assessment of life safety,and (8) socio-economic sustainable discounting.TechnicalPresentation 2Internalization ofClimate Risks in theContext of Planningand Urban DevelopmentTechnicalPresentation 3A Framework forRisk Assessmentand Risk-InformedDecision-Making forInfrastructureDevelopmentTechnicalPresentation 4Probabilistic RiskModeling: BasicPrinciples andApplicationsTechnicalPresentation 5An Economic Frameworkfor Evaluating ClimateProofing Investmentson InfrastructureTechnicalPresentation 6Supporting ElSalvador to ReduceInfrastructure Riskswithin a Green, Low-Emission and Climate-Resilient Frameworkfor DevelopmentPaving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Conference Proceedings 83