Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure - UN CC:Learn

Chapter 7: A Framework for Risk Assessment and Risk-Informed Decision-Making for Infrastructure Development7TechnicalPresentation 3:A Framework for Risk Assessmentand Risk-Informed Decision-Makingfor Infrastructure DevelopmentMichael H. FaberKey MessagesDr. Michael H. Faber, Professorof Risk and Safety Chairof the Department of CivilEngineering, DTU - TechnicalUniversity of DenmarkNatural hazards and effects of climatic change pose pressures on society, with inequitabledistribution of consequences leaving less-developed, resource-poor countries to suffer the most.Risks are real and represent society’s best knowledge about future costs and losses. Reducingknowledge uncertainty by quantifying information and knowledge contributes to betteroptimization of risk reduction.Resilience is only possible by planning in advance, i.e. by basing decisions on risks (future losses)rather than observations (current losses). Decisions must be robust with regard to assumptions andadaptable to future realities.Strategic resource allocation, including prioritization between prevention and aid, is required.Resources may consistently be allocated between different activities that affect health and theeconomy. The hierarchical organization of resource distribution and fund allocation to makedistribution more equitable.Improving best practices in design, procedure for operations, and maintenance is another way tooptimize prioritization of resource allocation on a global scale and for individual projects.Sustainable development necessitates that, to ensure intergenerational equity, risks must bemanaged through normative risk-informed centralized governance from global to local levels.Modern risk assessment frameworks and tools greatly enhance risk management. Risk managementframeworks based on Bayesian probabilistic decision theory emphasize the significance of bothdirect and indirect consequences on a hierarchy of systems and risk-based systems modeling.Generic modeling facilitates updating of risks through indicators (of exposure, robustness, andvulnerability) for both small- and large-scale management.Modeling can be applied for individually and jointly acting hazards, and can be utilized to optimizerobustness and resilience of structures, infrastructure systems, procedures and organizations.Life safety acceptability of decisions can be based on the societal willingness to pay (SWTP) criterion,which stems from the Life Quality Index (LQI) criterion. In El Salvador and the surrounding region, theamount that should be invested, is between $600,000 to $800,000 per life saved.Climate change is only part of a greater issue that threatens societies. Money and efforts investedinto climate change should be in balance with economic and social capacity of communities at local,national and global levels.80Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Conference Proceedings