Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure - UN CC:Learn

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Chapter 7: A Framework for Risk Assessment and Risk-Informed Decision-Making for Infrastructure DevelopmentFigure 7.12: Annual maximum wind distribution in Tokyo, ‘normal’ vs. with climate change0.300.25QuantileNormalCentral pressure-10 hPaProbability0.200.1595%98%99%110 km/h151 km/h182 km/h139 km/h181 km/h2022 km/h0.100.0500 50 100 150 200 250 30010-min sutainedwind speed in km/hETH also considers risks and impacts of earthquakes and other large-scale natural hazard phenomenaon the hundreds of thousands of components of societal infrastructure. Analysis includes not only themodeling of risks of each individual object, but also modeling of the loss for the portfolio. This is representedas the exceedance probability curve for losses of certain sizes (see Figure 7.13).Figure 7.13: Probability of exceedance by portfolio loss, consideration of common causeeffects (dependence of losses) vs. no consideration of common cause effects10 0Consideration of common cause effectsNonconsideration of common cause effectsProbability of exceedance [a -1 ]10 -110 -210 -310 -410 -5 0100 200 300 400 500Portfolio loss [Mio USD]92Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Conference Proceedings
Chapter 7: A Framework for Risk Assessment and Risk-Informed Decision-Making for Infrastructure DevelopmentPART IIThe ‘no consideration of common cause effects’ curve in Figure 7.13 would traditionally be produced ifdependencies were not taken into account in the risk assessment. As indicated by the dashed line in theabove graph, consideration of the dependency of losses within a portfolio has a significant effect on theloss exceedance curve. This is important for understanding what type of extreme losses a society has toaddress — not only the extent of these losses, but also the probability of extreme losses.Concluding remarks1. Natural hazards and effects of climate change pose pressures to society.2. Risks are real; they are not just numbers. Societies will suffer these losses in the future.3. Sustainable development necessitates the management of these risks. Knowledge about futureoutcomes is reliable; the range of outcomes is certain, even if a specific outcome is not. In the longrun, it is necessary to deal with the losses now through centralized governance of risks.4. Strategic resource allocation (prioritization between prevention and aid) is required. Many resourcesare being lost due to actions that are based on observations rather than risk-informed decisionmaking.Rather than acting surprised in response to an earthquake, tropical cyclone or tsunami,society must recognize that, on average, these losses are very stable.5. Resilience is only possible by planning in advance. Technical knowledge and knowledge ofphenomenon are available. While the precise effects of global climate change are unknown, therange of possible scenarios are known. The best course of action is to take all possible scenariosinto account in decision-making. Knowledge about how to deal with this uncertainty and how toadapt strategies in the future is also available. Thus, from a technical and scientific point of view, allrequired information is available to start acting now; societies must act immediately.6. Modern risk assessment frameworks and tools greatly enhance risk management.7. Resources may consistently be allocated between different activities having effect on healthand the economy.8. Generic modeling facilitates updating of risks through indicators for both small-scale andlarge-scale management.9. Modeling can be applied for individually and jointly acting hazards.10. Modeling can be utilized to optimize robustness and resilience of structures, infrastructure systems,procedures and organizations.Climate change is an important issue; however, it is an issue that stands not alone, but within thecomplexity of sustainable development. Therefore, not all resources should be invested into climatechange. Instead, the effort invested into climate change should be in balance with economic and socialcapacity of communities — local, national and global.TechnicalPresentation 1What a Country ShouldThink About andThen Do to AddressClimate Change andInfrastructure RisksTechnicalPresentation 2Internalization ofClimate Risks in theContext of Planningand Urban DevelopmentTechnicalPresentation 3A Framework forRisk Assessmentand Risk-InformedDecision-Making forInfrastructureDevelopmentTechnicalPresentation 4Probabilistic RiskModeling: BasicPrinciples andApplicationsTechnicalPresentation 5An Economic Frameworkfor Evaluating ClimateProofing Investmentson InfrastructureTechnicalPresentation 6Supporting ElSalvador to ReduceInfrastructure Riskswithin a Green, Low-Emission and Climate-Resilient Frameworkfor DevelopmentPaving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Conference Proceedings 93
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ForewordMr. Gerson MartínezAccordi
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AcknowledgementsThese Proceedings a
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Adapting infrastructure to the risk
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