Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure - UN CC:Learn

Michael Faber (Technical Presentation 3) presents a framework for risk assessment and risk-informeddecision-making for infrastructure development. Faber emphasizes that climate-related decisionsshould be based on risks rather than observations, robust with regard to assumptions, and adaptable tofuture realities. Using risk management frameworks founded on Bayesian probabilistic decision theory,Faber highlights the potential for risk-based systems modeling. He explains how the application ofmodeling for individually and jointly acting hazards can be utilized to optimize robustness and resilienceof structures, infrastructure systems, procedures and organizations.Building on Faber’s risk management framework, Travis Franck’s review (Technical Presentation 4) ofapproaches for probabilistic risk modeling focuses on core principles and applications of incorporatingprobability and uncertainty into risk management and modeling. Franck provides an overviewof probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods, including a concrete example of modeling for coastalimpacts of climate change; considers the strengths and limitations of PRA methods; and discusses alternativeways to communicate PRAs to facilitate dialogue on future risks for a structured approach to decisionmakingfor cost-effective choices. Emphasizing the uncertainty of the factors that contribute to climatechange risk, Franck presents PRA as a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risks associatedwith a complex problem that incorporates uncertainty into development planning. Franck explainshow PRA provides a tool for developing infrastructure in a way that is more resilient and robust, that offersvalue under a wide range of climatic conditions, and that increases social benefits while decreasing socialand financial losses.Matthew J. Kotchen (Technical Presentation 5) discusses an economic framework for evaluating theclimate proofing of investments in infrastructure. The framework’s emphasis on economic valuationfocuses on consideration of the costs and benefits of climate proofing, evaluated through market andnonmarket valuation techniques. He explains how this framework can be modified to incorporate climateproofingexternalities, geographic scope, considerations of proofing vs. prioritizing infrastructure projects,and discounting. Kotchen stresses that building capacity for efficient climate change adaptationrequires the following tasks:Identification of potential infrastructural adaptationsExpansion of knowledge of nonmarket valuationStrengthening of institutions for greater international and regional coordination of effortsBuilding human capital for institutional supportxivPaving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Conference Proceedings