Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure - UN CC:Learn

PART IChapter 4: A ‘No-Regrets’ Risk-Based Approach to Climate Proofing Public InfrastructureVulnerability Assessment: There are many aspects of vulnerability, arising from various physical, social,economic, and environmental factors. Examples may include poor design and construction of buildings,inadequate protection of assets, lack of public information and awareness, limited official recognition ofrisks and preparedness measures, and disregard for wise environmental management. Vulnerability variessignificantly within a community and over time. Vulnerability broadly includes exposure and sensitivity ofassets and livelihoods, which can be changed by policy makers and planners.Capacity Assessment: Policies and institutional structure and context are major factors for increasingresilience. Clearly, capacity can be influenced by policy makers and planners, and by other investments.Capacity includes technical competence of individuals and the functioning of institutions individually andin tandem, and it also includes inter-institutional dynamics, functioning of markets (including differentfinancial and insurance products). This includes persons and institutions directly and indirectly involvedwith CCA and DRM.Figures 4.1 and 4.2 provide a schematic presentation of the risk-vulnerability chain in the context of probabilisticrisk modeling (see Annex 4 for details about the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment(CAPRA) as an example of probabilistic risk modeling). In Figure 4.1, capacity is not a separate component,but is included in vulnerability. In fact, there is considerable overlap between vulnerability and capacity,and in many cases the risk vulnerability chain is based on Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability. However, becauseof the importance of capacity, and the fact that it can be conceptually and analytically separated fromvulnerability, it is best to disaggregate vulnerability and capacity.Climate change models forecast more intense hurricanes and flooding in some parts of El Salvador andgreater droughts in other parts. Four aspects of storms are particularly important for infrastructure: rainfall,winds, coastal storm surges and floodwaters. Stronger storms have longer periods of rain, higher windspeeds, higher coastal storm surges and greater flooding. Infrastructure designers, planners and operatorsshould use probabilistic models and revise codes and standards, instead of relying on the deterministicmodels used in the past and existing codes and standards. The uncertainty associated with projectingimpacts over 20- or 50- to 100-year time horizons makes probabilistic models an important method forincorporating climate change into decision-making processes. The key is to model and understand theimplications of long-term climate change and determine an optimal combination of no-regrets, low-cost/co-benefit, high-cost priority actions.‘‘ There is a menu offormal and informalinstruments, and nosingle instrument offerscomplete protection.The key is identifyinginstruments thatare appropriate forgiven hazards andvulnerabilities inthe context ofimmediate risks.’’Climate change adaptation and DRM comprise a wide range of strategies and actions at the household,community, local, national (and possibly international) levels, aiming to prevent hazards from occurringand/or reducing their negative impacts. There is a menu of formal and informal instruments, and no singleinstrument offers complete protection. The key is identifying instruments that are appropriate for givenhazards and vulnerabilities in the context of immediate risks. Capacities in a specific location should bedeveloped or strengthened in the context of long-term climate change to address vulnerabilities andboost resilience. Climate change adaptation and DRM strategies include a broad range of interventionsto increase resilience (e.g. engineering design and construction, building codes and standards, insurance,ecosystem management, emergency response), embedded within a holistic suite of capacity and institutional-strengtheningefforts that can protect and strengthen assets and livelihoods. These strategies andmeasures eventually help society to manage impending risks.Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Conference Proceedings 21