Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure - UN CC:Learn

Chapter 8: Probabilistic Risk Modeling: Basic Principles and ApplicationsPART IIBenefits of PRA in adaptationDespite its limitations, PRA has several benefits for adaptation:Development of infrastructure plans can incorporate uncertainty so that communities will bemore resilient under a range of possible climatic conditions. This increases return on investment,provides social benefits, and improves the community.PRA provides a framework for including and discussing future risks that allows for structuredthinking and approach to decision-making. Decision makers can discuss policy options in ameaningful ways based on probability by debating whether a risk should be included or whether aprobability is important.PRA helps to identify high-leverage policies to decrease exposure over time. With a properlyintegrative model, decision makers can study policy options and choose most cost-effective choice.TechnicalPresentation 1What a Country ShouldThink About andThen Do to AddressClimate Change andInfrastructure RisksTechnicalPresentation 2Internalization ofClimate Risks in theContext of Planningand Urban DevelopmentAction stepsMoving forward, the government of El Salvador can take the following steps:1. Identify the variables and parameters related to development (e.g. trends in population, economicgrowth, storms, seal-level rise, rainfall) that should be used to run optimization models to get mostbenefit from system. The best way to determine which variables are most important to El Salvadorand Central America is through stakeholder involvement and feedback.2. Estimate range of values for parameters by creating scenarios and defining parameters.3. Simulate using an integrative model.4. Combine with economic valuation to understand value of risk reduction in economic dollars andhow best to distribute development projects.Goal of PRAThe goal of PRA is to incorporate climate, economic, and social uncertainty into planning so that infrastructurewill be more robust. Ideally the approach improves investment decisions and reduces long-termexposure (risk) to society.TechnicalPresentation 3A Framework forRisk Assessmentand Risk-InformedDecision-Making forInfrastructureDevelopmentTechnicalPresentation 4Probabilistic RiskModeling: BasicPrinciples andApplicationsTechnicalPresentation 5An Economic Frameworkfor Evaluating ClimateProofing Investmentson InfrastructureTechnicalPresentation 6Supporting ElSalvador to ReduceInfrastructure Riskswithin a Green, Low-Emission and Climate-Resilient Frameworkfor DevelopmentPaving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Conference Proceedings 105