Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq - United States Department ...

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1.3. The Security EnvironmentThe conflict in Iraq has changed from a predominantlySunni-led insurgency againstforeign occupation to a struggle for the divisionof political and economic influenceamong sectarian groups and organized criminalactivity. As described in the January 2007National Intelligence Estimate, the term “civilwar” does not adequately capture the complexityof the conflict in Iraq, which includesextensive Shi’a-on-Shi’a violence, al-Qaidaand Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalitionforces, and widespread criminally motivatedviolence. Some elements of the situation inIraq are properly descriptive of a “civil war,”including the hardening of ethno-sectarianidentities and mobilization, the changingcharacter of the violence, and populationdisplacements. 6 Illegally armed groups areengaged in a self-sustaining cycle of sectarianand politically motivated violence, usingtactics that include indiscriminate bombing,murder, and indirect fire to intimidate peopleand stoke sectarian conflict. Much of thepresent violence is focused on local issues,such as sectarian, political, and economiccontrol of Baghdad; Kurdish, Arab, andTurkomen aspirations for Kirkuk; and thepolitical and economic control of Shi’aregions in the south. Although most attackscontinue to be directed against Coalitionforces, Iraqi civilians suffer the vast majorityof casualties. Given the concentration ofpolitical power and population in Baghdadand the city’s ethnic and sectarian diversity,Baghdad security remains the key to stabilityin Iraq. An Iraqi-conceived and -led BaghdadSecurity Plan is the centerpiece for addressingthe escalating violence.1.3.1. Overall Assessment of the SecurityEnvironmentThe level of violence in Iraq continued to riseduring this reporting period as ethnic, tribal,sectarian, and political factions seek powerover political and economic resources. Consistentwith previous reports, more than 80%of the violence in Iraq is limited to four provincescentered around Baghdad, although italso exists in other population centers, suchas Kirkuk, Mosul, and Basrah. Sectarian violenceand insurgent attacks still involve avery small portion of the population, butpublic perception of violence is a significantfactor in preventing reconciliation on keyissues. The conflict in Iraq remains a mosaicand requires maximum flexibility on the partof the Coalition and the GOI to uproot themain drivers of violence in different areas ofthe country.• The conflict in the north is characterizedby sectarian tensions, insurgents andextremist attacks, and competition amongethnic groups (Kurd, Arab, Turkomen) forpolitical and economic dominance,including control of the oilfields centeredaround Kirkuk. Violence remainedfocused primarily in and around thenorthern cities of Kirkuk, Mosul, andTal’Afar, where ethnic competition forpower is exacerbated by violence fromSunni extremists.• Violence in Anbar is characterized bySunni insurgents and AQI attacks againstCoalition forces. AQI and affiliated Sunniextremists are attempting to intimidate thelocal population into supporting the creationof an Islamic state. However, in apositive development, these efforts areprovoking a backlash among some tribalfigures and Sunni insurgent leaders, whoare encouraging local opposition to AQI,particularly in ar-Ramadi. Local Sunnisheikhs are leading this opposition andhave strengthened recruiting efforts forlocal police forces.• Violence in Baghdad, Diyala, and Balad ischaracterized by sectarian competition forpower and influence between AQI andJAM, principally through murders, executions,and high-profile bombings. AQI andJAM elements rarely clash directly; most14March 2, 2007
Total Attacks by ProvinceNovember 11, 2006 – February 9, 2007Number of Attacks per Day5045403530252015105These four provinces have approximately 37% ofthe population but account for 80% of attacks.0BaghdadAnbarSalah ad DinDiyalaNinewahBasrahTamimBabilWasitQadisiyahDhi QarKarbalaMaysanMuthannaDahukNajafIrbilSulaymaniyahPopulationweighted mapSource: MNC-Iof their reciprocal violence is against Shi’aand Sunni civilians through high-profilebombings or campaigns of sectariancleansing.• The conflict in the southern provinces ischaracterized by tribal rivalry; factionalviolence among the Supreme Council forthe Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI)/Badr Organization, the Office of theMartyr Sadr/JAM, and smaller militias forpolitical power; and attacks on Coalitionforces.1.3.2. Recent Developments in theSecurity EnvironmentAs described above, the new way forward inIraq focuses on security where violence ishighest—in Baghdad and Anbar. While theoverarching strategic goals remainunchanged, securing the population willassume a top priority to help set conditionsfor political and economic progress. We willincrease our forces in Baghdad by 21,500personnel to give our commanders anenhanced ability to hold previously clearedneighborhoods. The ISF are also reinforcingthe capital with three additional brigades.Prime Minister Maliki has established aBaghdad Security Command with 10 SecurityFramework Districts, with an Iraqi brigade,partnered with a U.S. battalion, permanentlylocated in each. More than 40 Joint SecurityStations will be established to facilitate cooperationbetween Coalition and Iraqi forcesand to build trust and confidence with thelocal population. In Anbar, U.S. Marines willbe added to provide more forces to consolidaterecent gains against AQI networks.Throughout Iraq, our embedded teamsadvising Iraq units are being substantiallyincreased in size to improve ISF operationalcapabilities more rapidly. As securityimproves, economic reconstruction programs15March 2, 2007
Page 1 and 2: Measuring Stability andSecurity in
Page 3 and 4: IntroductionThis report to Congress
Page 5 and 6: 1. Stability and Security in Iraq1.
Page 7 and 8: 1.1.4. Rule of LawStability and sec
Page 9 and 10: CourtsAs of January 2007, Iraq had
Page 11 and 12: To address procurement problems, th
Page 13 and 14: Oil Production, Distribution, and E
Page 15: Water and SanitationAs of December
Page 19 and 20: 1400Sectarian Murders* and Incident
Page 21 and 22: 12001000Attacks Targeting Iraqi Civ
Page 23 and 24: Many Iraqis feel more positive at t
Page 25 and 26: quarters, and 93 Iraqi Army battali
Page 27 and 28: 2. Iraqi Security Forces Training a
Page 29 and 30: Current Manning InitiativesThe gene
Page 31 and 32: 2.2. Ministry of InteriorMOI forces
Page 33 and 34: formalized a professional developme
Page 35 and 36: Iraqi Police Service EquipmentFor B
Page 37 and 38: Administration Directorate develope
Page 39 and 40: 2.3. Ministry of DefenseThe Iraqi M
Page 41 and 42: Force GenerationForce generation of
Page 43 and 44: make-up of Iraq generally. The even
Page 45 and 46: Annex A. List of Acronyms and Abbre
Page 47: 20 This report and future reports w

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