Talking to Groups that Use Terror.pdf - United States Institute of Peace

Step 1: Assess the Potential for Negotiationskeep their organization at the bargaining table, where the typically slowand incremental process of exchanging the gun for the ballot box canbegin to gain traction.Even if this transition does not occur, the mediator can increase itsinfluence on the conflict and/or the PAG by exercising those powerswhich almost any party acquires when it becomes a negotiating partner:namely, the powers to be heard and to listen, to help shape an agenda, tochange perceptions, to confirm or confound prejudices, to elevate orundercut expectations, and so forth.Conversely, not engaging may limit a government’s influence on a conflict,or even lead to the radicalization of a conflict if the refusal to negotiateempowers the most belligerent elements of a movement by showing thatnonviolent means are not available. A refusal to talk may discourage newleaders who might otherwise have preferred peaceful means of change.After winning the 2006 Palestinian elections, a number of moderateswithin Hamas sent conciliatory signals to the Quartet (the United States,the European Union, the United Nations, and Russia) indicating that Hamaswas prepared to go part of the way to meeting the Quartet’s requirements forrecognition. The Quartet, however, insisted that all its conditions be met.Once it became apparent that the international community was not goingto lift the economic embargo on the new government, Hamas’s moderatesseemed to lose influence to hard-liners within the organization.While groups that use terror often do not make the successfultransition to political parties, even a failed dialogue will introduce amovement and organization to the politics of the larger world, and makeclear to terrorist leaders that there are rewards for engagement.Redirecting the Terrorists’ AttentionA third benefit of talking is that while the talks may not lead to anegotiated settlement, the negotiations themselves may come to occupy asignificant share of the PAG’s attention and energy, thereby reducing thePAG’s ability and incentive to mount a sustained campaign of high-levelviolence. A recent study found that about half of terrorist groups involvedin negotiations continued to use violence, but the intensity and frequencyof the violence declined as talks dragged on. 817