Talking to Groups that Use Terror.pdf - United States Institute of Peace

Step 1: Assess the Potential for NegotiationsUndercutting ModeratesIf mediators and negotiators who support engagement risk looking foolishwhen talks lead nowhere, the moderates within a PAG who championedthe idea of talking risk being sidelined within or sanctioned by theirorganization, or even murdered by their harder-line colleagues. Whentalks lead nowhere, the door opens for hard-liners to assume or reassumecontrol of policy within the PAG. Greater violence is usually the result.Talks with the United Kingdom in the early 1970s discredited oldermembers of the IRA and led to the rise of a younger, more radical cadre whocontinued violence with little progress for over twenty years. The roots of therise of Hamas and its ability to oust the PLO from power in the Gaza Striplie in the failure to implement the Oslo Accords, which the PLO hadnegotiated but which Hamas had always opposed.Creating Splinter MovementsBut while deadlock is often costly, progress in the talks can be equally oreven more damaging in cases where the internal coherence of the PAGis weak. Those negotiating for the PAG may have control over or thesupport of most members of their group, but the closer a negotiatedsettlement comes, the more likely it is that a splinter group opposed tothe making of any concessions will break off and create a yet more violentterrorist entity. In other cases, the PAG negotiators do not even controlthe majority of the group’s members and cannot deliver their acceptanceof any negotiated agreement, so any concessions granted in exchange fortalks become worthless.Giving Terrorists Breathing SpaceSome terrorist groups may enter talks and even proclaim a cease-fire withno intention of permanently renouncing violence. Because terroristgroups grow stronger by demonstrating their staying power, simplybuying time in the face of an aggressive government counterterrorismcampaign can be immensely valuable to them.The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam repeatedly used cease-fires torearm and regroup for their next offensive. In 1998 the Basque separatistmovement ETA announced a cease-fire because of outrage—including21