Talking to Groups that Use Terror.pdf - United States Institute of Peace

Peacemaker’s ToolkitTerrorist groups are also more likely to consider talks or other dramaticchanges when they risk losing influence to rival groups. How does a PAGassess the need for negotiations vis-à-vis its potential rivals? Is negotiationperceived as a benefit or risk for the movement? Analysts of the Palestinianelections in 2006 debate whether the election of Hamas was, in part, a rejectionof Fatah’s pro-negotiation stance, or whether the voters actually wantednegotiations and believed that Fatah had failed to deliver effective talks.The presence of rivals may encourage violence or moderation.Terrorists may be more likely to participate in negotiations if they arethreatened by rival groups that are also pursuing diplomacy. But if therivals are committed to hard-line strategies, a group may increase its useof violence in order to compete with other radicals. Fatah created the BlackSeptember Organization (whose terrorist activities included the massacre ofIsraeli athletes at the summer Olympics in 1972) after the PLO’s expulsionfrom Jordan in 1971. This type of violent outbidding by Fatah was alsoevident after the outbreak of the al-Aqsa intifada. Incidents of violence,however, can sometimes be signs of serious interest in negotiation, asterrorists make last-minute moves to strengthen their position beforesitting down at the bargaining table.Evaluate the Attitude of Third Parties toward TalksA terrorist group may signal its readiness to enter negotiations but amediator may still not decide to engage the group unless the attitude ofinfluential third parties is supportive and the external environmentsuggests that talks will advance, rather than stall or obstruct, the widerpeace process.Assess International Leverage over the Terrorists and TheirAdversariesThe mediator’s effort to secure concessions from a PAG is more likely tosucceed if the mediator has the support of a wide range of internationalactors, especially those with leverage over the PAG. The mediatorshould thus evaluate which international actors—including not onlyneighboring states and major powers but also global and regional IGOs,international NGOs, diasporas, and other groups—might providemateriel, political, or moral support to the group. What do they offer themovement at present and what might they provide in the future? Can30